14 June
The United Kingdom’s Defense Ministry says that intelligence reports that a June 10th report out of Russia predicts that Russia’s dense spending will be 20% higher than in past years. Tragically, the revenue from Russia’s fossil fuel exports exceeds the cost of conducting war in Ukraine. Oil feeds the war. It is a slow process to cut Russian exports as the international community looks for alternative sources of energy.
At this juncture of the War, The New York Times reports Russia’s revenues from fossil fuels increased exponentially. The Russians made $97 billion from oil in first 100 days of the invasion, according to a research group in Helsinki, Finland. This comes from the fact that extraordinary high prices and the highest volumes in history. Though Russia’s fossil fuel exports have started to fall because of sanctions, high prices have more than canceled out the effects of that decline. The research from Helsinki found Russia’s export prices for fossil fuels have been on average around 60 percent higher than last year. As the EU and the U.S. import less, India and China have increased their imports of oil from Russia. And, ironically as the U.S. stopped importing from Russia, they have imported from the Netherlands and India which probably contains Russian crude oil.
12 June
National holiday of the Russian Federation. This holiday has been celebrated annually on 12 June since 1992, at the dissolution of the Soviet Union commemorating the beginning of constitutional reform and the new Russian state.
According to a photograph published by Reuters, antiwar artists in Moscow placed a flag outside the headquarters of the General Staff of the Armed Forces in Russia building. “This is not our day,” a slogan on the flag said.
Moscow-installed officials raised a Russian flag in Melitopol’s city center in honor of Russia Day. In Kherson, Russian bands played a concert to celebrate Russia Day. Ukrainian media reported that few, if any, local residents attended the Russia Day festivities in the two cities. Putin earlier this year issued a decree fast-tracking Russian citizenship for residents of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. In captured cities in the south and east, Moscow has also introduced the ruble as official currency, aired Russian news broadcasts, and taken steps to introduce a Russian school curriculum.
12 June
Ukrainian officials said Russia is bombarding a chemical plant sheltering hundreds of soldiers and civilians in Severodonetsk, a strategic city that is mostly under Russian control after weeks of intense battles.
Severodonetsk was briefly captured by Russian-backed separatists in 2014. For Russia, taking the city would provide a much-needed symbolic victory after significant setbacks. It would allow the Kremlin to declare progress toward its goal of “liberating” Donbas, a region where a significant portion of the population speaks Russian as its first language. (Washington Post)
Since Russia is blocking Ukrainian exports of food products from Black Sea ports, Ukraine is exporting grains through Poland and Romania.
Those routes have gotten backed up, so Ukraine is also in talks with the Baltic States to add a third corridor for food exports as the country races to empty silos before July’s harvest, but reaching the ports would require President Lukashenko of Belarus to agree. That might be tricky since Lukashenko is best buds with Putin.
Sweden and Finland continue to negotiate to become members of NATO.
Sweden’s military and the U.S. Marines conducted a drill on Gotland, a Swedish island with strategic significance for control of the Baltic Sea. “A lot of us thought that there wouldn’t be a need to defend Gotland after the Soviet collapse,” Col. Magnus Frykvall, commander of Sweden’s Gotland regiment, said.
MacDonald’s closed its Russian doors on March 8, 2022. See my first article, UKRAINE, RUSSIA & MCDONALD’S . MacDonald’s, a 30 year old symbol of new capitalism and burgeoning democracy, was bought by a Siberian oligarch. He bought all 850 stores and renamed the fast food restaurant Вкусно & точка, Vkusno & Tochka - Tasty Period. I’m not sure if that is a good translation…it doesn’t sound very alluring, but then the name may have a different connotation in Russian. Maybe it means something like, “It’s just tasty. Period. I mean, that’s it. It is delicious. No politics. Just delicious food…” I made that up. I need a better translator.
There won’t be any Big Macs…well, they can’t call them Big Mac - I wonder if the new Vkusno burger will taste the same. Did MacDonald’s sell the recipe for its special sauce? "Two all-beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions – on a sesame seed bun.“
In 1988 the Communist party gave McDonald’s permission to open a restaurant in the Soviet Union and in 1990 the first McDonalds opened in Moscow on Pushkinskaya square. More than 5 thousand people came to the opening and people stood in line for over 6 hours just to have their first burger and fries from the Western fast food place. It was once the largest McDonald's in the world.
9 June
Russia celebrated Victory Day, a day celebrating 77 years since the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany.
Putin apparently was hoping to tell the Russian people of his massive wins in Ukraine. Instead, Putin delivered a speech addressing his imperial vision to mark the 350th birthday of Russian Czar Peter the Great. Putin is a deep history fan, at least the history as he likes to imagine it. In fact, many believe that his actions in Ukraine are more motivated by his view of history than of any fear of NATO. Putin made parallels of his invasion of Ukraine and Peter the Great’s efforts to return Russian lands to the motherland. Putin sees the ‘recapture’ of Ukraine as necessary and righteous. Putin said, “During the war with Sweden, Peter the Great didn't conquer anything, he took back what had always been ours, even though no one in Europe recognized it as Russian. Now this is our fate too, to take back what’s ours.”
If this is Putin’s attempt to write his own epitaph, as Mark Galeotti so entertainingly suggests in the Spectator, I guess no one told Putin that we no longer live in the 17th century - imperialism and capturing ‘lost’ lands went out with Adolf Hitler and Hideki Tojo in the mid 20th century. Both died ignominious deaths in 1945. So much for writing Putin into history on the side of heroes.