February 24, 2022 to February 24, 2023
In honor of the dead and the injured. In respect of those displaced from their homes, their families, their jobs, and their futures.
19 million Ukrainians, mostly women and children, have been forced to leave their homes. 100,000 Ukrainian military have been killed. 30,000 civilians have been killed. (Norwegian Chief of Defence)
Here are photos of the tragedy.
The United States president, Joe Biden, avoiding the dangerous airspace of Ukraine, traveled 10 hours by train across Ukraine to Kyiv in a show of support for Ukraine. February 24th marks the one year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
President Biden said in a speech to the Ukrainians and to the world,
“[A year ago] Russian planes were in the air and tanks were rolling across your border. … You said that you didn’t know when we’d be able to speak again…That dark night one year ago, the world was literally at the time bracing for the fall of Kyiv. … Perhaps even the end of Ukraine. You know, one year later, Kyiv stands. And Ukraine stands. Democracy stands. The Americans stand with you, and the world stands with you.”
News Update-December 21, 2022
Russians target Ukrainian energy sources, Zelensky travels to the United States and addresses a joint session of Congress, a Christmas song.
Dear Followers of Ukraine Perspectives.
I wish you a warm and happy holiday. Be it Christmas, Hanukah, Solstice, and one of the many wonderful holidays of light. Be at peace.
I’ve been traveling, and then there is Thanksgiving, and then there is December, and then there is…. I am sorry that I haven’t had a chance to update you on Ukraine and Russia. The war continues and people continue to suffer.
Ukrainian President Zelensky is coming to Washington today, his first trip outside the country since the war began in February. He is here to meet with President Biden and make a speech to a joint session of Congress. This visit is a sign to Russia of America’s continued strong support of Ukraine. The latest Congressional budget proposal has set aside $44 billion for Ukraine. (Yowza!) Today President Biden will announce an aid package for Ukraine that includes the most advanced U.S. ground-based air defense system, the Patriot missiles. Patriot missiles are one of the most sophisticated weapons the United States has provided Ukraine. It can knock down Russia’s ballistic missiles, unlike other systems the West has provided, and can hit targets much farther away.
But, it is coming on Christmas…
And, I thought I’d share a Christmas story about a Ukrainian song, “Carol of the Bells.” What? I thought that was just one of those catchy Mannheim Steamroller songs. Well, as a matter of fact, “Carol of the Bells” was written by a Ukrainian composer and brought to the United States in 1922 and was sung by a Ukrainian choir at Carnegie Hall. Last month Carnegie Hall celebrated the 100th anniversary of that event bringing in the Shchedryk Children’s Choir from Kyiv.
The story of the song has a dark history since its beginning. Sad as it may be, it is easy to see the parallel of Ukrainian refugees today and the little baby of Christmas as well as the parallel between the history of 100 years ago and today. Ukrainian composer, Mykola Leontovych called the song “Shchedryk” (generosity) to celebrate the New Year.
“Bountiful evening, bountiful evening, a New Year’s carol”- the song told of the fluttering innocence of a bird and the hope it brings.
As “Shchedryk” became popular in the late 1910s, Ukraine was hit by the Bolshevik Revolution which morphed into the Russian Civil War and then the creation of the Soviet Union. “Shchedryk” was viewed as a nationalist song based on Ukrainian folk lore and sung in Ukrainian. Leontovych became famous for his song to the point he was forced to escape from Kyiv to western Ukraine. In 1918, Ukraine declared its independence, hoping the world would recognize its new borders that were redrawn under the peace treaty ending World War I. Symon Petliura, the new Ukrainian president, hoped a worldwide tour of Ukraine’s best singers would help their cause. So a delegation led by conductor Oleksander Koshetz embarked on a years-long tour that took them to Vienna, Prague, Paris, and finally New York City in 1922.
Sadly, on Jan. 23, 1921, Leontovych had been murdered during a visit to his parents’ home by an undercover Russian agent as part of Russia’s effort to wipe out Ukrainian culture. This murder parallels a murder of another Ukrainian musician, the head conductor of Kherson’s top theater - Yurii Kerpatenko, who was fatally shot this October after he refused to take part in an online day of music organized by Russian-backed local officials.
The Children’s Choir rehearses in Kyiv before the Carnegie Hall performance - in the dark imposed by Russian missiles that have wiped out the power grid.
The choir singing at Carnegie Hall.
Nuclear threat
Putin is just as afraid of nuclear war as we are.
Putin is playing a game of nuclear bluff, hoping that if he can throw out enough Dr. Strangelove threats of annihilation that he just might get what he wants.
It is no accident that Putin has stepped up threats just before the American midterm elections. As Putin hoped, the people in the West are showing signs of being tired of supporting Ukraine militarily as well as not wanting to push Putin so far that he will use nuclear weapons. Impending elections in Europe and the United States show some dissatisfaction with rising inflation, weakening currencies, and impending economic crises. The American conservative, Kevin McCarthy warned that a Republican controlled House would not write a “blank check” to Ukraine. Other politicians are calling for negotiations to avoid a nuclear confrontation.
In February Putin put Russia on high combat alert. Nuclear alert. This was Putin looking Joe Biden in the eye and saying, “Back off, buddy.”
Joe Biden did not back off. Nor did he escalate by parrying with his own nuclear threat. Instead, he responded by organizing an effective coalition of European and Asian allies to place heavy sanctions on Russia stopping the flow of arms and military technology into Russia, as well as providing $25 billion of military aid to Ukraine. Hoping to limit escalation of the war, the United States refuses to deliver any weapons to Ukraine that can reach deep into Russia or to support no-fly zones over Ukraine. If NATO sent in planes to protect Ukraine’s airways, any Russian plane that came into Ukrainian airspace could create a situation in which there could be direct combat between U.S. and Russian pilots.
Putin, facing embarrassing loses against the Ukrainians in September, tried to scare the West - “In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff.” (September 21, 2022). This is the ultimate terror of the nuclear age - fear of a leader backed against the wall holding nuclear bombs.
Historically, Putin was more cautious but then in 2021 he saw a shift in international relations with possible gains for Russia and himself. Foreign Affairs Peter Clement made an astute analysis: “A number of factors likely figured in Putin’s calculations: Russian security interests, a perceived window to advance broader geostrategic goals, and a desire to secure his place in Russian history. As is well known… Putin may have assessed that geopolitical circumstances offered a narrow opportunity to decisively break the seven-year stalemate [since the 2014 war] in eastern Ukraine. As Moscow saw it, the United States was politically polarized; the American public was largely indifferent to Ukraine and wary of new foreign wars, especially after the messy U.S. departure from Afghanistan; longtime German Chancellor Angela Merkel was leaving office; the world was still preoccupied with the COVID-19 pandemic and Europe had a heavy dependence on Russian oil and gas.” (Peter Clement was a former Deputy Assistant Director of CIA for Europe and Eurasia, has a PhD in Russian history, and has written on the Cuban Missile Crisis)
President Joe Biden compares this moment to the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 when President John F. Kennedy struck a secret bargain with Nikita Khrushchev to remove American missiles from Turkey. Biden who has worked for years with Putin was asked by CNN whether he thought Putin would escalate the war using nuclear weapons, Biden said, “I don’t think he will, but it is irresponsible of him to talk about it.”
The Russian leader knows that this is true, but like a little kid, Putin makes “you started it first” claims, complaining that it is the West who first threatened Russia with nuclear weapons. “Washington, London and Brussels… have even resorted to the nuclear blackmail. I am referring… to the statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons – against Russia.” (Vladimir Putin, September 21, 2022)) Putin did not present any evidence, nor have I found anything to prove that NATO has threatened Russia with weapons of mass destruction.
Last Sunday (October 23) the Kremlin threw out another dangerous rumor that the Ukrainians are planning to use a dirty bomb - a conventional explosive like dynamite that is wrapped with radiological waste. Instead of Russia being labeled the bad guy threatening nuclear escalation, Russia maintains it is the Ukrainian’s fault. The International Atomic Energy Agency has been sent to inspect for any dirty bombs. With the push back coming from NATO and the United States, Putin backed down a bit and then said, ‘well, the Ukrainians have the technology to build a dirty bomb…’
Russia has plenty of weapons to use against the West and doesn’t need to resort to nuclear ones. Russian missiles have bombed Ukraine’s power grid, a nuclear energy plant, local electrical plants. Russian attacks have damaged at least 30% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, raising concerns about the coming winter. In the last weeks, the Russians also introduced military drones that were supplied by Iran. The attack on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, most likely committed by Russia, worked as a warning to Europe to say “we can do anything we want” - we can blow up other energy sources, cyber attacks, or subsea cables for the Internet.
It does not look like the Russians have taken any steps to deploy nuclear weapons. It would be highly unpopular, both internationally and locally, if Russia were to pull out any of its nuclear arms.
On October 27th, Putin said at a Moscow-based geopolitical think-tank that Russia “had never talked about using nuclear weapons," and that a nuclear strike on Ukraine will make neither political nor military sense. (Kyiv Independent)
Annexation
According to Vladimir Putin 4 regions of eastern Ukraine don’t want to be Ukrainians, in fact the people see themselves as Russians. And on September 27, Putin declared that a referendum conducted in those regions led to an overwhelming vote calling for separation from Ukraine. Putin announced that Russia had annexed Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson Oblasts. Putin said that the residents of the four regions would become Russia’s citizens “forever.” The Kremlin claims that 100% of the people living in the occupied territories voted to join Russia.
100%! Really? This kind of ‘democracy’ mirrors the kind of voting we saw during the Soviet Union. There are reports coming from Ukrainians that the referendum vote was conducted by occupying forces and that some people voted under gun point. The Luhansk Oblast Governor reported that Russian troops checked homes of residents and wrote down the names of locals who voted against annexation.
Putin said on February 24, the date of the Russian invasion, that the Ukrainian state is illegitimate and was conceived by “building their statehood on the negation of everything that united us, trying to distort the mentality and historical memory of millions of people, of entire generations living in Ukraine.” And Putin was coming to the defense of the good Russian people living in Ukraine - which is, in truth, just a colony of Russia.
Putin worked around the UN Charter that views seizure of foreign lands as a blatant form of violent aggression not seen since Hitler. Putin argues that his invasion is in support of the separatists - which is no more egregious than what the West did in Kosovo in 1998. In speaking of previously annexed Crimea in 2014, Putin said that NATO’s action in Kosovo was a precedent that “our western colleagues created with their own hands in a very similar situation, when they agreed that the unilateral separation of Kosovo from Serbia…was legitimate and did not require any permission from the country’s central authorities.”
Note: I will be the first to agree that historically the West has not always adhered to international law in its international relations. But the analysis and comparison of Russian invasion of Ukraine with NATO participation in the Kosovo-Serbia conflict is deeply flawed. In this war, Russia - an independent sovereign state has invaded and now is taking territory from another sovereign state. This kind of blatant international thievery happened in WWII with Hitler’s invasion of Czechoslovakia and Poland and in 1990 when Iraq attempted to annex Kuwait.
Turkey has announced it rejects Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territory. South Korea stated it won't recognize Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territory. The European Council on Friday, Sep. 30 vowed that they would “never recognize” Russia’s illegal annexation of four more regions in Ukraine.
In the United States, the Senate and the House of Representatives is drafting legislation to cut off all military and economic aid to any country that recognizes the annexed territories as part of Russia. And President Biden said that the United States would “never, never, never” recognize Russia’s claims.
The General Secretary of the United Nation said, “I want to underscore that the so-called “referenda” in the occupied regions were conducted during active armed conflict, in areas under Russian occupation, and outside Ukraine’s legal and constitutional framework. They cannot be called a genuine expression of the popular will.”
Even some of Russia’s closest allies – China, India, Kazakhstan, and Serbia – have indicated that they will not recognize the results of the referendums or the annexation.
The annexations of the 4 regions are important to Putin for a number of reasons. The four territories create a land corridor between Russia and the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow ‘annexed’ in 2014. And Putin hopes that the new annexations will give legitimacy to his invasion to show both Russians and his global allies that he has accomplished what he promised. There also is fear that Putin is actually expanding Russian territory so that as the Ukrainian military moves back into occupied Ukrainian territory, then Putin will claim that Ukrainians are attacking Russia. Putin has said numerous times that if Russia is attacked that it will be within his right to use nuclear weapons to defend the homeland. The word ‘existential threat’ is repeated over and over.
Ironically, Russia does not actually militarily control all of the territory that it has claimed to annex. Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, was forced to acknowledge on October 3rd that Russia’s borders — as the Russian government newly defines them — remained in flux.
Next: Nuclear Threat
Part 1: Putin - Mobilization, annexation, and Rattling nuclear weapons
October 8, 2022
ANNOUNCEMENT - October 7, 2022
The Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to Russian, Ukrainian, and Belarusian civil rights activists and organizations who are symbols of resistance and accountability during the largest ground war in Europe since World War II, set off by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Let me say up front that the situation in Russia and Ukraine is so fluid that it is difficult to know what is true and what is not. Propaganda is a tool of war and accurate information is difficult to find. I have heard some journalists say that “Putin is desperate'‘ and “there is complete chaos in Russia.”
Putin is trying to stem growing discontent following Ukraine’s wins in the east and the south. But, I think it is an overstatement to say that he is ‘desperate’ and the country is in ‘complete chaos.’ Although there have been scattered protests in different cities and a growing number of people leaving the country to avoid being drafted into the military, Putin has yet to lose the support of most of the Russian people.
The Levada Center in Russia conducted a survey on September 22nd reporting that the approval rating of Putin dropped from 83% in August to 77% after his call for mobilization. And the percentage of Russians who believe the country is going in the right direction declined from 67% to 60%. So, although this survey shows a slight slip in Putin’s popularity, it does not indicate that we can expect a massive popular uprising against Putin in the near future. But it is early, and there are rumors of some instability coming out of Russia.
The Russian withdrawal from Lyman in eastern Ukraine has led to public criticism of the military’s leadership. But, the criticism is not opposition to Putin or anti-war voices - it's pro-war voices who are unhappy with the way the defense ministry is conducting the war in Ukraine - they want a more aggressive and decisive defeat of Ukrainian forces.
It is telling that social media indicates what I imagine is actually going on in Russia. No one is blaming Putin. Dictatorship 101 - ‘Always find someone else to blame.’ One blogger attacked General Lapin and the chief of General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, and the Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu. "Are you men or not? Do you have any balls or not? Why are you still mincing your words lest something bad happens?" Ms. Kashevarova said. "Is the president aware of what is happening? Is anyone keeping him apprised? Where are the supplies? Where are the Armata [tanks]? Where is everything? How did it come to this? Has it all been stolen? Sold off? Where has it all gone? Did it even exist in the first place?" she asked.
Of course, true dissent in Russia has been suppressed. “Those voicing discontent in public were invariably punished: thousands were arrested for marching or holding signs that read, among other things, net vojne (“no to war”) or the phrase dva slova—“two words,” a euphemism for net vojne.” (Foreign Affairs, September 27, 2022)
There are rumblings of disapproval from Putin’s international allies, China and India. In September prior to the Ukrainian wins, China indicated that it had “questions and concerns” about the war in Ukraine and India’s President Modi told Putin that “today’s era is not an era of war.” These comments are, at best a gentle criticism, and at worse a strong reprimand. Putin felt a need to reassure both leaders that he would quickly bring the war to end. But, the war has not ended, and at this point the Ukrainians are looking pretty good. It does not look like the Putin war will end soon.
China thought that Putin’s operation against Ukraine was a simple "military exercise," but it has turned into a war that has driven up global energy and food prices that hurt China's economy. However, China has not abandoned Russia in terms of the enemy of my enemy is my friend scenario - China has allied itself with Russia as challengers to the United States as a global power and so despite China’s discomfort with the Russian war, China joined Russia's military drills in Russia's far eastern region. But this buddy buddy relationship between Putin and Xi may be fragile and self serving as long as it is just that, serving itself. China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan agreed recently to a study to build a railroad that would pass through the three countries to Europe, and would bypass Russia. (VOA news)
Bottom line, Putin’s friends and allies are not asking him to abandon his war - they just want him to finish it. Which, as far as the Russian people are concerned, means pulverizing and defeating those nasty Ukrainians. Thus, following the surprising Ukrainian military victories in Ukraine's east and south, Putin addressed the Russian people on September 21, 2022 and called for partial mobilizations, annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory, and said the word ‘nuclear’ too many times. In the next three articles, I will address Putin’s three approaches to ending the war.
Mobilization
Putin in his address on September 21st said he would call up new troops.
The number of troops to be conscripted was not specified in Putin’s speech, but the number stated by the Ministry of Defense was 300,000. Some predict that the number will be closer to a million.
This is seen as a major escalation of the war. “The Russian army has taken many casualties (some estimate 80,000) out of an initial invasion force of about 190,000 troops.” (CIS, Sept 26, 2022) The drafting of a massive number of troops may not necessarily win the war, but it may discourage both the Europeans and the Unites States who might withdraw support of Ukraine.
A million new troops is a big number - but, the question is whether the Russian government actually has enough equipment to kit out that many new troops, whether there are sufficient weapons, and whether there is time to effectively train the new recruits. Will these troops be ready and able to take on the Ukrainians who, albeit less in number, are well trained and equipped by up-to-date NATO and American weapons? Will there be enough housing for troops? How about medical care?
Not surprisingly the draft of new troops has caused an uproar, and maybe some degree of panic. There are stories of men being rounded up at night and any man aged 18-60 might be conscripted. Although Putin promised that only men with prior military service, no illness and with fewer that 3 children would be called, NPR interviewed men who said that there have been no limits on which men are recruited.
Flights out of the country have been filled and prices of tickets have gone up significantly. There are reports that over 200,000 young men have escaped from Russia - nearly the same number of troops called up in February for the invasion.
But where can a potential conscript escape? Because of Western sanctions there are limited locations where Russians can go. Except for Serbia, there are no European states available so Russias are fleeing to neighboring countries like Georgia, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev urged “humanity, patience and organization,” saying the Russians had been “forced to leave because of the current hopeless situation.” Georgia is getting massive numbers of new Russian immigrants - “With cars lined up for miles at its border and waits of more than 48 hours, Georgia said it would allow visitors to enter on foot. The number seeking entry almost doubled over the past week, to about 10,000 a day.”
Those escaping include young menwho are professionals in IT, science, business as well as academic scholars.
Ooops. Putin - trying to put Pandora back in the box - said that only reservists should be conscripted for the war and ordered officials to correct the mistakes made. But, at this point nobody believes Putin, and young men and sometimes their families continue to rush to the borders to escape being forced into the military.
I wonder why Europeans forbid the entry of Russians draft dodgers. Don’t we want to applaud young men refusing to fight in this unjust war? I realize that a large influx of Russians would be difficult to accommodate, especially when these countries are already taking in massive numbers of Ukrainian refugees. In addition, some east European states have little sympathy with Russians generally, having suffered at the hands of Russian/Soviet regimes. And some Europeans see these Russian men as previous supporters of Putin until now, when they face death on the battlefield. Or perhaps, as Winston Churchill is purported to have said, “Never let a good crisis go to waste” - strategically Europeans may hope that Russians will stay in Russia and will pressure Putin to end the war or, in the extreme, force an overthrow of Putin.
Looking forward to a future when there is no more war, I would like to say something about the Russian men who have escaped Russian conscription. It is not helpful or accurate to attack these men as ‘complicit cowards,’ as I read today on Twitter. Sadly, some men have left their homes, many without a place to go or money to support themselves to avoid fighting and dying in a war they don’t believe in. Today there is a report that a Russian rapper Russian Ivan Petunin, who performed as “Walkie,” committed suicide because he “refuses to murder another man.“ He left a video where he said Putin has taken all Russian men captive, leaving them with 3 choices: becoming a murderer, going to prison, or suicide.
Next: Annexation
This YouTube video is purportedly on the Russian/Georgian border. It has been dated September 27, 2022.
Pocketful of Stories
It is very cold in Ukraine in the winter.
Image: mbfitzmahan, Winter in Lutsk, 1997.
Today was cold here in the Hudson Valley. It reminded me of how cold I felt in September in Ukraine. Winter is coming to Ukraine. What impact will this have on the people of Ukraine and the Russo/Ukraine War? Many homes have been destroyed and has led to women, children, and the elderly leaving and becoming refugees. Some have traveled to western Ukraine and found places to stay - see my articles on Personal Accounts - and there are up to 10 million refugees that have been forced to escape Ukraine - that is 1/4 of the population of Ukraine!
But, what about those people who remain in the country? I read an article in the New York Times that reported on a humanitarian crisis related to the fact that there may not be enough glass to cover windows that have been blown out of houses and apartments in bombed areas of Ukraine. And what about the concern about nuclear plants? 55% of Ukraine‘s energy comes from nuclear plants. It is no accident that we keep hearing about Russians attaching nuclear plants - the Kremlin is trying to make it very uncomfortable or even deadly for Ukrainian civilians this winter. The issue of ‘nuclear terrorism’ will be a good topic for a later article.
NPR reported that there is a fear that the Russian’s will target the cities’ centralized heating systems. In cities over 1 million, apartment buildings get their heat from heating systems developed during the Soviet Union and all heat comes from heating stations within the city. In Kyiv nearly 600,000 kilometers of pipes warm Kyiv residences in the winter. These central heating stations are vulnerable to missile attacks. Kremenchuk, Okhtyrka, and Kharkiv, already had their central heating stations attacked. Attacking these heating systems would lead to a mass exodus of the cities and potentially result in many deaths.
So, what about this winter? Will the Ukrainians have enough warm places to live? Will they have glass on their windows and get heat from their heaters? Will their heating systems warm their homes?
Lutsk in 1997
Temperatures should reach well below zero degrees Fahrenheit, probably as low as –20 to -30 degrees Fahrenheit. Last year they had snow from November to April.
The early entries of Don’s journal abound in stories of how cold it is. We were cold from the first day we arrived on September 26th. The heat in our apartment did not turn on until October 15th, the date it turned on for everyone in the city. We also were not well prepared. We didn’t know what kind of clothes to take to Ukraine. I am a big fan of the warning, “there is no such thing as bad weather, just bad clothes,” attributed to a Welshman, so we asked what kind of clothes to take to Ukraine. An American wrote to us from Lutsk advising us to bring the same kind of clothes that we would wear in Seattle in the winter. That was wrong. Duane was from North Dakota and never had been to Seattle in the winter where the winters, though rainy, are decidedly warmer than the steppes of Lutsk, Ukraine in 1997.
My happy temperature range is somewhere between 68 to 78 degrees. I know! I am a wimp. I remember being very cold in Lutsk in late September - I would go to bed with all my clothes on. Feeling sorry for me, one of my Ukrainian friends took me to the Bazaar to buy me a fur coat - yes, a real rabbit coat. Katie and I both got one. I would be horrified in the States to walk around in the skins of a poor little bunny, but in Ukraine after I bought my fur coat I finally was warm - warm for the first time in months. My friend Valya told me that during the Soviet Union, everyone was guaranteed one fur coat. Not as a fashion statement, but as a necessity.
From Don Fitzmahan’s Lutsk Journal - 1997
Thursday, September 26, 1997 - the date of our arrival in Lutsk.
It is cold in the apartment. The windows and door to the balcony have been open to air out the paint smell. The university kindly repainted our small apartment for our arrival. Volodymyr assures us that the heat will be turned on October 15th. We crawl into bed under two wool blankets and good firm down pillows.
September 27
We passed the night fairly easily. Maureen was quite cold during the night and vows to layer-up tonight. We have noticed that everywhere we go it is cold. There is no heat anywhere. It turns out that all of Lutsk is heated by one main source of steam, piped through the city’s radiator system. Therefore, nobody gets heat until the city fathers say so.
October 1
Only 14 more days until heat. Speaking of heat, let’s talk about the weather. First, it is colder than home. Daytime temps are in the 40s to low 50s. Night time must be 10 degrees colder. Today is sunny, but everyday up until today has been cloudy, very much like home. It rained Monday, quite hard. Our apartment is in a ten-story, 150-unit building. Our building is one of fifteen such buildings in this area. It is not what we would call an apartment complex, more like a collection of college dorm buildings. In between these buildings are open spaces. They contain playground equipment and a quasi-grassy area. These areas are crisscrossed with walking paths. Some are paved, most are simply worn areas in the sparse grass. I mention this because the rain causes these paths to become muddy. It is a different kind of mud, only an inch or so deep, but very slippery. This mud dries quickly, once the rain stops, but instantly becomes reactivated in the next shower. Cold = holodno and rain = douzhe.
Everyone goes to sleep and I am cold. The tap water is scalding hot, so I sit under the shower until I am sweating from the steam. The bed is my friend.
After class I stop at the main department store in Center to buy a comforter. Both Maureen and Katie have been unable to sleep, being cold and generally uncomfortable. Our sleeping arrangement may need some explanation at this point. We share two rooms, with the three girls in one room and the parents in another. We each have a single bed, with the parents beds pushed together. Each bed came with two thin sheets, two thin, yet heavy, wool blankets, a large feather pillow with a pillow case. The sheets are both flat sheets, not fitted, and are very small, allowing almost no surplus for tucking them in. As a result, they come loose nearly every night; ending up either wrapped around your feet, or on the floor. The blankets are also a bit small, leaving little overhang on the sides. This becomes quite apparent at 3:00 AM when you roll over, tying your ankles up in the disconnected sheet, and exposing your backside to the cold night air. I, the ultimate tosser and turner have learned to sleep as still as possible. We did manage to acquire a few extra blankets. These all-wool blankets, although quite warm, are very heavy. That may explain why I sleep so still at night. It isn’t so much that I don’t move; it’s more that I can’t move. The end result of this is that we have decided to buy one comforter and one large sheet as a test project. Maureen and Katie will test these, and a decision as to what to do for the rest of us will be made as a result. The comforter and sheet cost a total of 64 Hryvni ($38).
October 20
Weather – The past few days have been splendid. It is decidedly cool to cold, but the sun has been out, and the afternoons are almost warm. We frequently ask about the kind of weather to expect this winter. Opinions vary widely, however, this we are certain of - it will be cold and it will snow. Temperatures should reach well below zero degrees Fahrenheit, probably as low as –20 to -30 degrees Fahrenheit. Last year they had snow from November to April. We had a brief snow two days ago. It was very wet, lasted about 15 minutes and did not stick. Even though we brought some cold weather gear, we are already checking out clothing for winter, just in case. (Note: Not much is sold here in Lutsk. There are not many stores - the main location for buying anything is at the outdoor Bazaar.)
The heat – It is now five days since the official “turn the heat on” date of October 15th. In our apartment, the radiator in the kitchen is slightly warm to the touch. In the two bedrooms, there is no sign of heat. We hope this will improve, but as the weather has been mild, we haven’t inquired yet…A nice man stopped by the apartment just before dinner. He brought five additional blankets for us. The heat in our apartment is slowly increasing. All the radiators now feel warm. Nothing is anywhere near hot. Today I was told that last year they closed the university for two months due to the cold winter. My oh my!
November 4
Maureen and Shauna spent the day with Leela, a law student, shopping for warm coats at the big Bazaar, with no luck. The warmest coats seem to be fur coats, costing $400 and up. They returned from the experience discouraged, but mostly cold. A chilling wind had blown through the Bazaar, numbing them to the bone. Back at the apartment, they sat huddled around the oven, shivering and drinking hot tea.
December 19
Cold weather and snow has descended on Lutsk, and it seems that winter is here to stay. The temperatures recently dropped very low (-28C). All the girls now have warm coats. As many as half the female population of the city sport fur coats of some kind. The traditional Russian fur hats are also seen everywhere. They have pull-down ear flaps, but no one pulls them down.
Russia’s Popular Singing star Opposes Putin and war
“I am a foreign agent, too.”
Image: Alla Pugacheva and Maxim Galkin
In 1965 we were listening to the Four Tops, The Rolling Stones singing “Satisfaction,” Petula Clark and “Downtown,” and the Beatles singing “Help.” In the Soviet Union, Russian youth were listening to Allá Pugacheva. For 57 years, this singer has been the sound of 20th century Soviet Union and Russia. She continues to draw crowds for concerts.
Yesterday, Alla Pugacheva came out against Putin’s War in Ukraine. 73 year old Pugacheva has 3.7 million followers on Instagram and she wrote on her post, “I request to be added to the ranks of foreign agents of my beloved country,” she wrote. “I am in solidarity with my husband, an honest, respectable and genuine person who is a true and incorruptible patriot of Russia, who wishes his Motherland prosperity, peaceful life, freedom of speech and the end of the death of our guys for illusory goals that are turning our country into a pariah and worsening the lives of our citizens.”
Two days earlier, her husband who is a vocal opponent to the Russian invasion was named a ‘foreign agent’ by the Russian Foreign Ministry. Galkin, whose Instagram feed has been blocked in Russia, accused Russian authorities of hypocrisy and lies for its war crimes committed in Bucha, Odessa, and Mariupol.
Ouch! Earlier this month, Putin spoke affectionately of Ms Pugacheva - she is the sound of his youth after all. Putin gave Pugacheva the Order for Merit to the Fatherland in 2014.
The New York Times in 2000 described Allá Pugacheva as “the goddess of Russian pop, Moscow’s Tina Turner with a hint of Edith Piaf, whose songs have given voice to the yearnings of millions.” She has sold over 250 million records, ranking her among the world’s best-selling musical artists.
Is this the sound of the bricks falling, or is this just the way things go in a war?
“A Million Scarlet Roses” was written by a Latvian composer, Raimonds Pauls and the lyrics were written for Pugacheva by Andrei Voznesensky who drew inspiration from the life of a Georgian painter, Niko Pirosmani, believed to have filled a town square with flowers for a French actress he had a crush on.
A Million Scarlet Roses (Миллион роз ) (my rough translation)
Once there was an artist and he had canvases and a home.
But he loved an actress who loved flowers,
So he sold his house, sold his canvases and his home.
He bought a sea of flowers.
Millions, millions, and millions of scarlet roses
From the the window from the window from the window you can see
Who's in love who's in love - who's in love seriously.
He turned his life into flowers for thee.
At dawn you stand by the window,
The square is filled with flowers as if in a dream.
You wonder what fool of a rich man would buy all these flowers.
Now a poor artist stands barely breathing.
Millions, millions, and millions of scarlet roses,
From the the window from the window from the window you can see
Who's in love who's in love who's in love seriously.
He turned his life into flowers for thee.
Millions, millions, and millions of scarlet roses
From the the window from the window from the window you can see
Who's in love who's in love - who's in love seriously.
He turned his life into flowers for thee.
News Update - September 18, 2o22
Ukraine takes back 3,400 square miles northeast of Kharkiv and presses on Kherson.
Note: I’m back from 3 weeks in the Seattle area. I, too, am wondering what’s going on Ukraine. It looks like Ukraine is ‘winning.’ Or…
The war, now going on for nearly 7 months, has some good news for Ukraine. Ukraine has taken back 3,400 square miles northeast of Kharkiv. Is this just propaganda from the Ukrainians, or are the wins significant and do they indicate a shift in the war? I have gone from news agency to news agency and from scholar to scholar, and here is what I can tell you.
The general response to these victories are that they are “very significant.”
The Ukrainians have been able to retake a large chunk of occupied territory in the northeast part of Ukraine. It is too early to say that this is a turning point in favor of Ukraine because the recovery of land is only in one area of occupied Ukraine and Russia still occupies nearly 20% of Ukrainian land.
But what Ukraine has been able to accomplish is a big deal. OK, now I have to try to explain some military strategy. As you know, that is not my strong point, but I have found some sources that might help us understand what is going on.
Reclaimed Land
3400 square miles reclaimed by Ukraine in September, 2022.
It is important that the Ukrainian forces last Saturday (September 10) were able to retake the towns of Izyum and Kupiansk which are both centers for Russian forces to get supplies for the Donbas area. Also, according to France 24, Ukrainian troops as of September 9th were “conducting a counteroffensive in the southern Kherson region…General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN, says that barring unforeseen battlefront developments, the Ukrainians could be in a position to seize the entire right bank of the Dnieper River, including Kherson city, by October.”
The DniEper River
Also, some saw Russian soldiers running away from the battlefront, rather than fighting. I have read about Russians running away from their posts before. I have to think these reports are a way that Ukrainians can say that the Russian troops are either cowards, dispirited, or inept. This is good for Ukrainian morale. The fact is that apparently, the Ukrainians used astonishing speed to attack these two areas and the Russian military was either surprised or unable to respond. Of course, the troops withdrew. It points to a lack of troops in the areas and poor strategy from the Russian military.
This military maneuver surprised most people, including the Russians. It is believed that the Russians were focusing on the south and were unprepared for the attacks in the northeast. People are blaming the poorly trained troops and are praising the Ukrainians as ‘highly competent and motivated.” For those of us rooting for David over the Russian Goliath, it is a happy moment.
What does this mean to Ukraine?
Ukraine must be happy on a couple of levels. 1. Ukraine is in need of some wins. The long months are a huge drag on their economy and the loss to human life are horrific. 2. The West, including the United States, are certainly feeling tired of supporting this foreign corner of Europe especially if they see the war as a lost cause.
There are reports that Ukraine worked more closely with American and NATO Intelligence and military strategists to come up with this result. There had been earlier reports that the Ukrainians were not providing needed information to American Intelligence, thus making it harder for the Americans to help. Following the wins last week, President Biden announced that the United States will send another $600 million in military supplies to Ukraine, including more artillery ammunition.
So what will Putin do?
These wins are embarrassing to Putin. The people at home are beginning to stir. According to Mark Galeotti, “there are a huge number of Russian elites who are not happy with the things the way they are going” And, even Putin’s oligarchs are seeing an uncertain and weak Putin and may be making things even more uncomfortable for the dictator.
An interesting analysis by Michael Kimmage in Foreign Affairs stated that Putin since the early months of the war has been balancing two balls, “One is sustaining the war for the long term with a peacetime Russian army, having surmised that Ukraine’s military is weaker and that a prolonged war favors Russia. The other ball is ensuring that Russian society remains insulated from the war, on the assumption that Putin can maintain high levels of domestic support as long as ordinary Russians are not exposed to the war’s costs.”
The truth of the matter is that the Russians do not have enough troops, and many of the troops that they have are undertrained. Up until now, Putin has been using private military companies (including draftees from prisons) and relatively impoverished troops coming from non-Russian parts of the Russian federation. There are plenty of men and women for a larger army, but to mobilize all eligible people could be a political faux pas.
In addition, the Russians may be running out of long range missiles - the Russians have used up nearly 80% of their stockpile. Production is down because of the Western sanctions boycotting the export of microelectronics. This means that the Russians are only able to produce 7 to 10 long range missiles a month. Uh oh! I guess those pesky sanctions are beginning to work.
Acccording to US Intelligence, the Russians are also being forced to buy artillery shells from the North Koreans. The New York Times reported on September 5th, “Russia is buying millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea…a sign that global sanctions have severely restricted its supply chains and forced Moscow to turn to pariah states for military supplies.” This comes after the Russians were forced to buy Iranian made drones, some of which were believed to be defective.
As to that second ball insulating Russian citizens from the good, the bad, and the ugly war in Ukraine…Even some of Putin’s supporters are not pleased. On Saturday in response to Putin dedicating a new Ferris wheel in commemoration of the 875th anniversary of the founding of Moscow, one well followed blogger wrote, “You’re throwing a billion-ruble party. What is wrong with you? Not at the time of such a horrible failure.”
Last weekend, more than 30 Russian municipal deputies signed a petition calling for Putin’s resignation. They wrote in their petition, “We, the municipal deputies of Russia, believe that the actions of President Vladimir Putin harm the future of Russia and its citizens…We demand the resignation of Vladimir Putin from the post of President of the Russian Federation!”
Finally, in addition to military set backs, Putin is also facing diplomatic push back from his so-called allies. Friday, September 16, Prime Minister Modi of India told Putin “I know that today’s era is not of war.” This was a polite way for India to say it did not like the war Putin was directing. Modi’s comment, was a day after Putin acknowledged that China’s Xi Jinping, had “questions and concerns” about the war.
So…what does all this mean? I’m not sure. Keep your eye on the news. The people at home and the Chinese and Indians are not pleased - they see a weakening Putin and are wondering what’s next. Winter is coming…that’s a real thing in snow filled Ukraine. Will Putin stall his war and bump up the aggression in the Spring? And, what will happen if he does that? Will the Western allies be able to get more guns and ammunition to the Ukrainians? Will the sanctions that are expected to take place after the New Year hurt the Russian economy? Will Putin tighten his hold on Russia - getting closer and closer to a full totalitarian state? On the other hand, should we be careful about underestimating Putin and the Russians? Will the Russians stop exporting all oil and gas to Europe as Putin warned? Are the Europeans ready for a cold winter, i.e. do they have alternatives to Russian oil?
Finally, why aren’t I talking about peace talks, a truce? At this time, it does not seem likely. The Ukrainians are on the move and have the advantage - President Zelensky said that he will not return to the peace table until Russian troops have evacuated Ukrainian land. Putin is not likely to talk about a truce, further weakening his political position.
Sanctions - Part II
How to make sanctions work? How bullet proof is the Russian economy? Who is sanctioning Russia? Will sanctions force Russia to withdraw from Ukraine?
Image: Heng (Singapour / Singapore), Lianhe Zaobao
Oh, no, talking about sanctions again? Oh, yes! This is cool stuff. Kind of like a class on international relations in a tea cup. In real time.
If our Western nations and Japan were on the ground fighting this war in Ukraine, I would be talking more about battles and munitions. But, what do I really know about that stuff, anyway? And, we over here in the West, are not fighting this war on the ground. We are fighting this war with our pocketbooks.
The news on sanctions changes daily. I am writing this article on sanctions on August 29, 2022.
Sanctions-Part I was about: 1) Why use sanctions? 2) What sanctions have been imposed - a list. For a daily up to date list of sanctions go to Peterson Institute for International Economics.
But, for all that … do Economic Sanctions work? The short answer is … there is no short answer. How successful these 2022 sanctions appear to be seems to depend on who you talk to.
According to:
Russian President Vladimir Putin referred to the sanctions as the “West’s Economic Blitzkrieg” and said that they never had a chance of succeeding.
United States. - According to the United States government in April, “Experts predict Russia’s GDP will contract up to 15 percent this year, wiping out the last fifteen years of economic gains…”
World Bank - According to the World Bank in June, “2022 will be a bad year for the Russian economy. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to drop by over 11 %. This would be the largest drop in GDP since the collapse of the Soviet Union.”
Mark Galeotti, British scholar on Russia - My favorite Russia scholar, calls these sanctions an ‘unparalleled economic war’ against Russia. Galeotti predicts that Russia will begin to feel the bite of the sanctions by September. And though the economic impact from the sanctions have been slow to take hold, the damages will be severe and it will take a long time to recover from them. (See Mark Galeotti’s podcast, In Moscow’s Shadows, Episode # 70, June 19, 2022. You can get In Moscow’s Shadows where you get your podcasts or go to https://www.buzzsprout.com/1026985. ) Well, let’s see if Galeotti is correct.
How successful will sanctions be and when will they hurt depends on a number of things:
How ‘bullet proof’ is Russia’s economy, i.e. financially how long can Russia hold out under these sanctions?
The Russian economy has not collapsed. In June the Russian ruble which had plummeted in the first months of the sanctions, has now recovered to where it was before the war began. Really?
The Russians, expecting sanctions, have prepared. From Russia’s experience in the 2014 war against the Ukrainians, the Russians were expecting sanctions from Europe and the United States. The Russians planned in advance to restore the ruble by manipulating the currency. This means that Europeans are required to pay for Russian oil in rubles. On top of that, Russia has a giant trade surplus.
But if we look a bit closer, in Moscow the ruble is worth considerably less and on the black market the ruble sells for as little as 1/2 of its earlier value.
Also, Russia defaulted on a debt for the first time since 1998. Russia has money to make a $100 million payment, but sanctions have made it impossible to pay it. The US has barred Russia from making debt payments with the $600 million it holds in US banks, making it harder for Russia to repay its international loans. So who cares if Russia doesn’t pay its debts? Well, the guy who lent Russia the money might be unhappy. More importantly, in the long run - if Russia doesn’t pay her debts then no one will lend Russia money in the future. This is a big deal.
All successful countries borrow money. The United States, China, and Japan have the largest economies in the world - in that order. As of January 2018, the US had a national debt of $25 trillion, China is roughly $5.5 trillion in debt, and Japan has around $12 trillion in debt. A healthy growing economy borrows money. I know! Doesn’t make sense, but it is true.
If Russia can not borrow money, its economy will stagnate. That is not good.
BTW: I am clearly not an economist and foreign debt is a controversial and complicated topic. But, we do know that if you or a country can’t borrow money you are in trouble in the long term.
Russia's central bank assets have been frozen so it can’t use the $630 billion reserves it has in foreign currencies. I know, $630,000,000,000! That is a lot of zeroes. As a further slap in the face, major Russian banks have been removed from the international financial messaging system SWIFT, which will delay payments for its oil and gas exports.
Russia is also suffering from inflation. That should be no surprise. If goods are scarce, the ones you can find will be more expensive. On June 23rd, Russian political scientist Ilya Matveev reported that “Yearly inflations is looking to be 20-25%. (NPR Ilya Matveev)
How universally are countries imposing sanctions? Who is participating and who is not? Can Russia wiggle out of the impact of sanctions because other countries provide enough funds and products to ameliorate the financial pain?
SANCTION SUPPORTERS
The economic sanctions placed on Russia, though far from perfect, are the most comprehensive actions taken against a major power since World War II.
NATO - 29 of 30 members (Turkey is a hold out - see below)
Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the United States. Greece, Germany, Spain, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro, and North Macedonia. Sweden and Finland, new applicants to NATO, also support NATO’s sanctions.
The European Union members
Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Finland.
It is understandable that the European states feel threatened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Previous neutral European states are working with NATO and the EU - Switzerland, Norway, and the UK.
Germany - Since 1969, Germany has maintained a policy called Ostpolitik, choosing dependence on Russian energy to maintain peaceful relations with Russia and to integrate it into Europe, while allowing defense spending to fall. In response to the February 2022 invasion, Germany suspended the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and announced a new policy of energy independence from Russia, admitting that Ostpolitik was a failure.
The United States - President Biden has led the coalition imposing sanctions on Russia. See Ukraine Perspectives article on Biden’s leadership at “Biden: Cold War Warrior Armed for 2022 War.”
Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have joined in the sanction regime with the United States.
The East Asian states (excluding China) support the United States not only because the United States is an important military ally and support, but also because the Russia/Ukraine situation mimics a similar situation with China/Taiwan. If Russia can invade an innocent neighbor with impunity, then does China now have permission to invade Taiwan? Or, in a worse case scenario, would the People’s Republic of China invade part or all of another East Asian country? Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea have banned exports of computer chips electronics, semiconductors, computers, sensors and lasers, navigation and avionics, and marine and aerospace equipment.
RUSSIAN SUPPORTERS
To offset the losses from the sanctions from Western and Asian allies, Russia increased energy exports to China, Turkey and India to make up for decreased revenues in Europe. Russia has given deep discounts on oil and gas and has pocketed an extra $24 billion from selling energy to those nations. The sanctions on Russia’s imports (the goods Russia brings into its own country) have proved much more effective than the sanctions on its exports (the goods Russia sends to other countries). Russia’s imports, since sanctions, have decreased 2 1/2 times - including pharmaceutical, auto manufacturing, textile, electrical and electronic equipment, and computer industries depend on imports.
Direct
Belarus is the the only full supporter of Russia, allowing Russian troops to enter Ukraine from its Belarus.
Other countries supporting Russia in the war with Ukraine are Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Kyrgyzstan.
Indirect
Syria supports Moscow’s recognization of the republics in eastern Ukraine.
Iran justifies the Russian invasion of Ukraine by saying Russia has been provoked by NATO.
UAE and Saudi Arabia don’t want to get involved and haven’t condemned Russia’s aggression.
Neutral or wishy washy - all of these regions or countries made the requisite slap on the hand to Russia for invading Ukraine in a vote of the UN General Assembly, but now they refuse to join in imposing sanctions against Russia. Generally, these countries think the war is a European or regional problem that they do not want to get involved in.
South and Central America
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
India
China
China, the second largest economy in the world, deserves an article all of her own. The oldest civilization in the world and now the largest communist nation is complicated. Don’t let anyone kid you, China and her place in the world is not easily explained or dismissed.
Turkey
Turkey is complicated. Aren’t they all?
Turkey is important to NATO because of her geographical intersection between Europe and Asia. The U.S. has a major air base in Turkey where America stores nuclear weapons and Turkey’s President Erdogan has blocked Russian warships headed toward Ukraine during the 2022 War. But, Turkey’s President has a difficult relationship with the other NATO members by being the only member to oppose admitting Finland and Sweden into NATO.
3. So…when will the sanctions defeat the big bear attacking the little state of Ukraine? When will Putin pull out his troops?
What I see -
Putin is in charge and doesn’t appear to have any intention of withdrawing his troops from Ukraine in the near future.
Polls show that the Russian people support the war, so we shouldn’t expect an uprising against Putin in the near future.
The Kremlin has complete control of the Russian press and Internet. Most Russians don’t know about the massacre in Bucha or the destruction of maternity hospitals or bombing of train stations. They believe that Russian troops have been sent to Ukraine to save their neighbor from the Nazis in power - Nazis who took control of the country with the illegal overthrow of Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. The vast majority of Russians think this war is the fault of Ukraine and the United States. The Russians passed legislation suppressing dissent, so the Kremlin suffers little to no resistance.
So - How long can Putin run the war with the troops he already has?
How many Russian troops have been killed in the war? Any number I can give you is probably not defensible. The Russians and the Ukrainians say two different things. But, a number I hear most consistently is that after 6 months of war, the Russians have lost 45,000 personnel.
Putin has yet to authorize a full draft to bring more recruits into the military. However, in July Russia began recruiting thousands of volunteers to restock its ranks in Ukraine. No experience needed. The recruiting is focused on poorer and more isolated regions where lots of money of money is rewarded to new recruits.
On August 25th, Putin signed a decree to increase the Russian armed forces by 132,000 to take effect on January 1. I know, I don’t know why that odd number is needed. This increases the number of Russian troops to 2 million. “The decree comes just a day after Putin’s defense chief acknowledged that the Russian military campaign in Ukraine has stalled, with experts saying the Kremlin's troops appeared demoralized and understaffed.”
The Kremlin hasn’t said where it is going to get the additional troops. Will he get private contractors or use conscripts? Putin has tried to avoid a complete mobilization - "Putin has been reluctant to do this because he has tried to isolate the Russian population from the costs of the war through using mercenaries from the Wagner private security organization, recruiting in the non-Russian ethnic republics of the country, from the prison population and using press gangs in occupied parts of Ukraine," said Neil Melvin, the director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute, or RUSI, a London-based think tank. (NBC News)
The economy continues to support the war machine. How long the military can operate without new computer chips and replacement parts for its weapons is unknown.
Winter is coming. How long will the Russian military be able to fight during the winter? Remember Napoleon?
In Summary - Economic Sanctions are a form of warfare and it is the form now being used by allies of Ukraine against Russia. The sanction regime being used is the strongest and most coherent in the history of the modern world. Sanctions take a long time to stop military warfare. Russia is suffering from the effects of economic sanctions, but its aggressive war machine continues to wreak death and destruction on Ukraine. The war is spearheaded by one man, Vladimir Putin who has no intention of ending the war soon. Unfortunately, this war may last a long time. How long no one can predict. What we do know is that as long as Ukraine has the military and economic support of its allies, it may be able to hold off Russia long enough for….
So, this whole study of sanctions is a study in progress. And many questions remain. How long can Ukrainian allies hold sanctions against Russia? Will the allies be able to become independent of Russian oil and gas? Will the January 2023 boycott of oil and gas substantially hurt Russia? Will sanctions be enough to force the Russians to withdraw from Ukraine? What is in the future for Ukraine? What about the civilian population of Russia? Oh, my…so many questions.
Questions and Answers
Whatever happened to McDonald’s in Russia? Who is banning Russian oil in 2023?
Ken Smith wrote a question, “I was thinking about what is the status of McDonalds, Starbucks, and Soft Drink Companies in Russia. I recall the french fries matter. If these companies are being replaced by Russians where is the money coming from and how are the new companies getting raw materials, machine replacement, etc, etc, with the “strict”, “massive” sanctions in place? I recently read about a Country (do not recall name) participating in reducing fuel use from Russia but it will not take complete effect until January, 2023.”
Thank you, Ken.
Yes, what ever happened to McDonalds?
I know that all the McDonalds outlets were bought by a Russian millionaire. And, yes, most goods coming in as imports from European and American countries are not now available. For many goods, imports not available may be viewed as luxury goods and not having them is viewed as merely as a kind of annoyance, but some imports are essential - especially computer chips and other technology. Russia is like any other industrial state and is deeply dependent on technology for its cars, its tanks, its missiles, and its ships.
But, another interesting story is that when famous brand names like Coca Cola left Russia, the Russian government adopted a decree allowing Russian businesses to steal patents from countries deemed "unfriendly," such as the United States and United Kingdom. Russian producers, effectively pointing their middle finger at Western businesses previously ensconced in Russia, are copying Western products (in some manner) and have just rebranded them with the same Western name or a made-up name. So Russian knockoffs of Coke’s Fanta drinks are being sold - drinks with names such as "Fantola” have flooded the market. Russian courts, ruling against foreign firms, have shown no sympathy to foreign businesses suing under copyright and patent laws.
Who is banning Russian oil in 2023?
The United States has already banned Russian oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal. And the European Union will drop the guillotine on Russian oil in 2023.
The European Union
By sea: All 27 members of the European Union nations will ban imports of Russian crude oil coming by sea as of December 5, 2022, and ban all petroleum products as of February 5, 2023.
By Pipeline: Pipeline imports of crude oil and petroleum products will be exempt, in a compromise with EU member states like Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic.
Germany and Poland will go one step further and will ban all oil products by sea and by pipeline by the end of 2022. This means that a total of 90% of Russian oil that is imported into Europe will be blocked. Wow!
Oil and gas are Russia’s largest exports - by far. In 2020, although Russia was the world's biggest exporter of wheat bringing in $10.1 billion, these numbers pale in comparison to Russia’s export of gas and oil at $142 billion a year.
To put things in perspective - In 2022, Russia earned $93 billion from fossil fuel exports in the first 100 days of the war- the EU imported 61% of this. In 2021, the largest importers of Russian oil and gas were China ($12.6 billion), Germany ($12.1 billion), Italy ($7.8 billion), Netherlands ($7.8 billion), Turkey ($6.7 billion), Poland (4.4 billion), and India ($3.4 billion). But this will all change in 2023.
Another big problem Russia may have is that if Russia wants to deliver its oil and gas abroad, then it needs ships. This is a key vulnerability for Russia — strong sanctions against tankers transporting Russian crude oil should significantly limit the ability of Russia to export its oil. In April-May, 68% of deliveries of Russian crude oil were made with ships owned by EU, UK and Norwegian companies, with Greek tankers alone carrying 43%. For deliveries to India and the Middle East, the share was even higher at 80%. On top of that, 97% of the tankers were insured in just three countries, UK, Norway and Sweden.
Economists predict that the anticipated decline of Russian exports of oil and gas could effectively wipe out about 18 years' worth of production gains.
News update - August 20, 2022
Both Russia and Ukraine fear that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant will be hit by missiles resulting in a nuclear disaster, U.S. is buying Ukrainian grain for food aid, Ukrainian schools will open for the Fall.
Image: Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station
August 20, 2022 - It is reported that a Ukrainian drone struck the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea fleet in occupied Crimea on August 20th.
August 20, 2022 - Russia and Ukraine have agreed to allow international inspectors to visit the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Both sides accused the other of threatening the nuclear site.
August 19- In Mykolaiv, nine people were injured by Russians, including four children.
August 19 - The United States is preparing to buy 150,000 metric tons of grain from Ukraine for an upcoming shipment of food aid. The final destinations for the grain have not yet been confirmed.
August 18 - United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said there were signs that global food markets were beginning to stabilize in the wake of the agreement to provide safe passage for merchant ships from Ukrainian Black Sea ports.
August 17 - Europe's natural gas prices are roughly seven times higher than prices in the US.
August 17 - 41% of Ukrainian schools are ready to resume classes in September, despite war, the Ukrainian education minister says.
August 17 - As a further sanction against Russia, starting on September 1 Finland will only allow Russian citizens to schedule 500 visa application appointments per day. Previously 1000 appointments a day were given.
August 17 - At least four people were injured in a Russian attack on the southern city of Odessa overnight.
August 17 - Russia bombs Ukrainian 700-800 times every day.
August 16 - Nikopol, a town across the river from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has again come under rocket fire from the Russians. Residential areas were hit and four people were injured.
August 14 - According to CNN, “Local hospitals are clearing wards ready to treat more victims. Russia is increasingly targeting civilians with illegal cluster bombs, significantly driving up the number of causalities and spreading terror. One victim told us he was sitting outside his home with friends when a cluster bomb struck, injuring three of them and breaking his leg, damaging his arm and peppering his body with tiny metal fragments.
CNN war correspondent, Nic Robertson writes, “Putin's hell has a lot more ugly tomorrows to come, and while the tide of Putin's offensive has yet to turn conclusively for Ukraine, it is weakening in their favor.”
News summary - August 8, 2022
Grain ships leave Ukrainian ports, Ukrainian farmers struggle through war torn months, Amnesty International controversy, U.S. Senate votes to approve NATO membership of Finland and Sweden
Image: Ukrainian farmer farming side by side with fighting military. NYTimes.
August 7 - Four more grain ships leave Ukrainian ports.
There some hope for countries in need of Ukrainian grain. The largest group of ships left Ukrainian ports carrying grain, sunflower oil and corn. They sailed to Istanbul through the mined waters of the Black Sea.
The United Nations, said that the ships were carrying 6,000 tons of sunflower oil to Italy, 45,000 tons of meal to China, 66,000 tons of sunflower oil to Iran, and 44,000 tons of corn to the Turkish city of Iskenderun. (NY Times)
August 4 - Amnesty International's report criticizes Ukrainian military.
Amnesty reported a number of incidents when Ukrainian forces appeared to have exposed civilians to danger in 19 towns and villages in the Kharkiv, Donbas and Mykolayiv regions. Amnesty International reports that Ukrainian troops sheltered alongside civilians and that Russian rocket strikes on Ukrainian military positions left several nearby civilians dead. NPR's journalists also witnessed some evidence of military near bombed civilian areas.
The report has led to Ukraine’s Amnesty International head to quit. She accused Amnesty International “of parroting Kremlin propaganda in a report that criticized Kyiv's military response to Russia's unprovoked invasion.” (RFERL)
The Kyiv Independent wrote, “In its brutal war of conquest against Ukraine, Russia has been blatantly and systematically targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure anywhere its missiles, artillery, and guns can reach. Shocking scenes of a destroyed maternity hospital in Mariupol, a shopping mall in Kremenchuk in the middle of the day, and mass graves of hundreds of innocent civilians executed in Kyiv’s suburbs are just a fraction of Russia’s atrocities against Ukrainian civilians since its full-scale invasion began.”
I believe the Kyiv Independent said it well in August 8th’s editorial, “No one is asking human rights organizations to cover up the possible wrongdoings of the Ukrainian military, but anyone publishing a report of this nature while Ukraine is defending itself from Russian aggression must exercise extreme caution when doing so. We already know what happens when one isn’t careful with an enemy like Russia…The report was precisely what Russia has been waiting for: A carte blanche to continue to target civilian infrastructure and claim there were soldiers or military equipment located at the site. All Russia has to do now after an attack on a hospital is point to Amnesty’s report as justification. In other words, the report poses a direct threat to the lives and safety of civilians in Ukraine.” (Kyiv Independent)
In defense of their report, Amnesty International wrote, “"Every single member of Amnesty's Ukraine office knows that only the Russian Federation bears responsibility for the crime of aggression against Ukraine, not the least of which because several of our colleagues had to leave everything behind to save themselves and their families." In fairness, Amnesty International has produced dozens of reports about Russian war crimes.
August 7 - Ukraine’s farmers confront the ravages of war.
Here is a case in point where the Russians are targeting farms.
“Ukrainian farmers face many of the same dangers as soldiers as they reap this year’s harvest. Across Ukraine, Russian artillery and mines have killed tractor drivers. Thousands of acres of ripe wheat have burned from strikes. Fields are pockmarked where incoming shells have left craters.
The farmers say they have little choice but to farm despite the danger. Much of Ukraine’s grain crop is winter wheat and barley, sown in early fall and harvested the following summer. After planting before the war began, farmers near the front must take risks now, lest they lose the entire year’s investment.” (NYTimes)
August 3 - U.S. Senators vote to approve NATO membership for Finland and Sweden.
The Senate voted 95 to 1 to admit Finland and Sweden into NATO, easily passing the 2/3rds Constitutional requirement for approval. According to the U.S. Constitution, Article II, Section 2, “[The President] shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present (approve). (United States Constitution)
President Biden, the principal leader who pushed American allies to support Ukraine in the war, lobbied for quick entry for the two nations who had previously been unaligned. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell urged unanimous approval. He said, "[Finland and Sweden’s] accession will make NATO stronger and America more secure. If any senator is looking for a defensible excuse to vote no, I wish them good luck," McConnell said.
Sen. Josh Hawley, a Missouri Republican who is an ardent supporter of Donald Trump, cast the only no vote. Hawley called NATO a distraction from what he considered United States' chief rival — China. "We can do more in Europe ... devote more resources, more firepower ... or do what we need to…deter Asia and China. We cannot do both." (NPR)
There’s a new sheriff in town
It is not easy being neutral in the Russo-Ukraine War, Russia withdraws from International Space Station, new Ukrainian Prosecutor
Image: The Daily Star Lebanon
July 26 - Russia threatens to close an Israeli agency in Russia.
In March Israel joined other nations at the United Nations condemning Russia for the invasion of Ukraine.
However, Israel did not join Western allies in sanctioning Russia, hoping to continue a relationship with Russia so that Putin did not use his military presence in Syria to oppose Israeli strikes in Syria against Iran and Hezbollah.
But, Israel did help the sanction-givers by banning planes and ships that are not registered in Israel from staying in the country for more than 24 hours. This was done to prevent sanctioned oligarchs from using Israel as a safe haven for their private jets and yachts. In addition, Israel has provided funds and support for Ukrainian refugees.
But, Israel’s semi-neutral stand against Russia may change. Israel has a new prime minister. As they said in American Westerns, there is a new sheriff in town. On July 1, Yair Lapid was selected prime minister until the elections in November. In March, prior to becoming prime minister, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid strongly opposed the Russian invasion and said that there was “no justification” for Russia’s aggression.
Lapid comes from a family of journalists and activists, many of whom suffered under dictatorships. Yair Lapid’s father was born in Yugoslavia (now Serbia) to Hungarian Jewish parents. His maternal grandfather David Giladi was from Transylvania (now Romania). His paternal grandfather Bela (Meir) Lampel, a lawyer and Zionist activist, was murdered in Mauthausen concentration camp, while his great-grandmother Hermione Lampel was sent to Auschwitz, where she was murdered in a gas chamber.
Russia is not happy with the the new Israeli Prime Minister and Russia is even suspected of interfering with the upcoming elections in November that could oust Lapid. Moscow on July 1 condemned an alleged Israeli airstrike near a Russian stronghold in Syria calling Israel’s years-long air campaign in Syria “categorically unacceptable” and demanding it cease. (Times of Israel) Israel has said in the past that it targets bases of Iran-allied militias, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah group that has fighters deployed in Syria.
To spark further contention, yesterday the Russian government threatened to outlaw a private agency that helps Russian Jews immigrate to Israel. (Washington Post)
Sharansky, a former Prisoner of Zion in the Soviet Union, lauded Lapid’s criticism of Moscow, saying that Lapid “brought Israel out of global shame,” Sharansky said. “The fears of speaking the truth about the Russian invasion reminded me of the status of court Jews, who needed to say ‘yes’ to the leader. Israel is not a ‘court country,’ certainly not for Russia.”
Nord Stream 1 & 2 Gas Lines
Germany stopped funding of Nord Stream 1. Now, Russia stops delivering gas to on Nord Stream 2.
July 27 - Russia cuts the flow of natural gas to Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to one-fifth capacity. Germany builds terminals for liquid natural gas.
Although 46% of Germany’s energy already comes from alternative sources: wind, solar, and hydroelectric power, Germany is highly dependent on Russia for energy. And as a punishment for opposing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia cut back the amount of gas delivered to Germany.
In desperation and in fear of future Russian retaliation, Germany is looking to a different non-renewable resource, liquid natural gas (LNG). Germany, unlike other European nations has resisted moving to liquid gas, a more expensive alternative, and Germany has developed an overreliance on a single supplier, Russia. Germany has decided it needs its own fleet of floating terminals. These installations are for ships with apparatus to take chilled liquefied gas from seagoing tankers, warm it back into a vapor and move it onshore. The hope is for gas to start arriving in Germany before the end of winter as is needed for home heating. (NYTimes)
If there is success in importing L.N.G., it could smooth the way for German ports to become a hub for bringing in hydrogen (a renewal source), which may have a future as a fuel as the European Union promotes a greener substitute for natural gas in the fight against climate change.
See BBC on the future of fusion as possible energy source. (Note: fission is the kind of energy used today in nuclear plants.)
July 27 - Russia Threatens to withdraw from the International Space Station
In a ‘if you won’t play my way, I’ll take my ball and go home strategy, the new head of Russia’s space agency said that Russia will leave the International Space Station by 2024. This signals an end to one of the last remaining areas of cooperation between Russia and the United States.
In fairness, Russian officials have discussed leaving the ISS project since last year, citing aging equipment and growing safety risks. NASA said that it plans to continue operating the space station through the end of 2030.
July 27 - New Prosecutor General in Ukraine.
Andriy Kostin, a parliamentarian from President Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, has been selected as Ukraine’s new Prosecutor General. He was approved by parliament with 299 votes. He replaces Irina Venediktova.
I don’t know how well this new Prosecutor will do, either.
Kostin was a candidate in the 2021 competition for the Ukrainian Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO). Transparency International Ukraine argued that Kostin did not satisfy the integrity criteria of the competition and he was not chosen because he was accused of possible nepotism in the hiring of his wife as well as the fact that Kostin sold two flats in Odessa for a total of $32,000 without reporting the sale to the National Agency for Prevention of Corruption (NAPC).
Oh, well…
BillBoard built in occupied Ukraine
New Russian billboards in occupied Nova Kakhovka in southern Ukraine - "Russians and Ukrainians are one people, one whole," "Russia is here forever!"
Image and text: Twitter - July 27, 2022. Tadeusz Gibran, Belarusian journalist.
Personal Account
Many families of men fighting for Ukraine are forced to escape to avoid retaliation from the Russians.
These personal accounts from refugees within Ukraine are from interviews by Volodymyr Khomik. Lutsk, Ukraine.
More than 7.7 million refugees have escaped from Ukraine and crossed over to Poland, Romania, Estonia, and Lithuania. Another 8 million people have been displaced and have found a safe place to stay in cities and towns like Lviv and Lutsk. Lutsk is in the northwest about 3 hours from the Polish border. Housing is scarce and most are staying in temporary housing.
Volodymyr wrote on June 19th: “These refugees I interviewed live in a dorm at the Lutsk Medical College. When I first got there the doors were closed and someone came up to me, asked why I was there and asked for some identification. Then, a lady called some unknown authority for permission. Then someone else led me to the refugees who were living on the 7th floor. It isn’t easy to find the refugees in town because they are housed all over the city, and no one seems to have a clear record of where they are living. Also, Ukraine is under martial law, so people are a bit distrustful and suspicious about strangers. Unfortunately, I guess I have become like a stranger to people here since there are many young people who’ve grown up here and I don’t know them. My coworkers are now retired and I don’t know the people who have taken their jobs. Sadly, I am a stranger among my own people.”
I imagine this is hard for Volodymyr to feel disconnected to his own community. When we lived in Lutsk, Volodymyr knew virtually everyone. Volodya, a professor at the university, was important in his own way. He was our ticket into meeting all kinds of interesting people from academics to musicians to lawyers and our neighbors - this opened up the whole world that was Lutsk, Ukraine. Now that he is retired and has become an Elder, Volodya no longer knows the young people who have taken the place of his friends. This is sometimes one of the little known scourges of getting older - being forgotten and ignored.
Interview of Inna, a refugee in Lutsk, Ukraine by Volodymyr Khomyk. June 2022. Image: Volodymyr Khomik, Inna from Rubizhne, Luhans’ka oblast, worker at a local factory.
“My 24 year old daughter Karina, a student studying in Kharkiv, called me and said, ‘Mom, the war has started.’ Intense fighting broke out in Kharkiv. The University evacuated the students from Kharkiv to the city of Kryvyi Rih, and from there the administration sent them to the city of Kamianets-Podilskyi.
On the first day of the war, only one missile strike occurred in Rubezhnoye. The fighting there did not begin at the beginning of the war, but later. In March, fighting began with powerful air strikes. We sat in the basement for three days.
Then we moved to the town of Svatova. The city was completely occupied on March 3rd. There were no battles but the Russians occupied it. It is very difficult to live in an occupied territory. Our family did not have a good life there. We were not free to say the word "Ukraine" or to say that we cared about Ukraine.
It ended very sadly. My husband's brother fought in the armed forces of Ukraine. Families in which men fought on the side of Ukraine had to leave the region, because the Russians used violence against the relatives of Ukrainian soldiers. There were people who were whistle-blowers who went to the Russians and denounced those families whose sons or husbands belonged to the armed forces of Ukraine.
An acquaintance of mine, a classmate, lived with her 15 year old daughter and her husband who fought for Ukraine. The Russian military broke into their house at night, and tried to rape their 15-year-old daughter but failed. The family immediately fled the town of Svatove.
It was scary to pass checkpoints on the roads between different cities, because the Russians took the people off the buses, checked everything, and stripped them to their underwear. Even young children were questioned about their attitudes towards Ukraine. The Russian military at the checkpoints said that we Ukrainians are not grateful to them, and that they had come here to Ukraine from Russia to free us from the Nazis, and yet, we still support Ukraine.
We left Rubizhne and Svatove, but our parents had to stay there. Also my grandparents, who are 95 years old were forced to stay because they are not able to leave the Luhansk region because their health does not allow them. It is very difficult to live there now, very difficult. There is no funding for humanitarian aid either. The Russian occupiers promised to give them a Russian pension in rubles, but did not give them anything. My parents received a Ukrainian senior pension in early February, but they no longer receive anything. They qualify for a Ukrainian pension, but they can’t receive it because they live in an occupied territory where this pension is not available. They have survived thanks to their small farm dacha in the village. Those people who live in the cities and in apartment buildings and do not have a dacha or a farm, have a very hard time living. (Note: a dacha is a small piece of land allotted during Soviet times to citizens by the local government for gardening or growing vegetables for personal consumption.)
We can’t get ahold of our parents. If the Internet ever works, I still can't talk to my parents freely, because the Russian’s are eavesdropping on everything and the Russian Federal Security Service is listening.
After I left Rubezhnoye, my house was destroyed during an air strike and everything was lost and the house was uninhabitable. The Kadyrov's Chechens fought in Rubezhnoye and they looted apartments, and took household appliances, and everything else from abandoned homes back to Chechnya.
(Wikipedia: Ramzan Akhmadovich Kadyrov is a Russian and Chechen politician currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic. Kadyrov was reported to have been taking part in Russian operations outside Kyiv. In a video he called on Ukrainian forces to surrender “or you will be finished”. The Telegraph reported that on two occasions where Kadyrov had said he was in Ukraine he was proven not to be. In one instance he said he was in Mariupol at a petrol station and published a photo, but the pump in the background, Rosneft's Pulsar brand, does not operate in Ukraine. On another occasion, Kadyrov posted a video suggested he was meeting troops in Mariupol but he hosted a Russian official in Grozny on the same day. On 28 March 2022, President Putin promoted Kadyrov to the rank of lieutenant general. On 26 May 2022 Kadyrov threatened Poland. He was apparently upset by the Polish supply of weapons to Ukraine.)
The most dangerous anxious moment I experienced was when the Russians learned that my husband's brother Eugene Alexander had been in the Ukrainian army for 5 years and was fighting against Russia. The Russians armed with weapons and machine guns came to our home and began to search the apartment. I told them that I have a small daughter and asked them to please not to scare her. Later, my husband also went to fight in the war and is now fighting for Ukraine.
In the future, I hope that our state will get back its entire territory and that we will be able to see our parents. My biggest fear is that I may not have a chance to see my parents again.”
Note: This is an interesting interview for multiple reasons including stories of how the Russians are treating Ukrainians in occupied territories. It also shows how frightening it is to be away from your family that are stuck in Russian occupied territory and the fear that you will never be reunited. The belief that the Russian Federal Security Service-i.e FSB (former KGB) is omniscient and able to wiretap every house in Ukraine and is watching everyone may or may not be true, but a belief that the FSB has a Stalinesque superpower to control and watch the people is widely believed. The reference to the Chechens fighting in Ukraine is a well spread myth, a kind of a bogeyman story, used to scare Ukrainians into submission. How accurate these stories are is unknown, but referring to the brutal Chechens does a good job of scaring the everyday Ukrainian. My memory of the Ukrainians is that coming from generations of submission from the Soviets and the brutal Tsar, the people are quick to believe myths and to believe in the brutality of the government and, in particular, the Russians.
News - July 22, 2022
Deal to end Russian blockade of grain, bombing of Port of Odesa, weaponization of energy by Russia, Zelensky cleaning house
Image: Wheat field of Ukraine.
July 23 - Russian forces attacked the Black Sea trade port in Odesa with cruise missiles. The attack endangered the grain export deal signed the day before.
Two missiles were shot down by Ukraine’s air defense, while the other two hit the port's facilities. The attack came a day after Russia and Ukraine signed a UN-backed agreement to resume exports of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea. The deal agreed to the passage of Ukrainian grain from three southwestern ports in Odesa Oblast, including the one in Odesa. (Kyiv Independent)
July 22 - Turkey made a deal between Russia and Ukraine to allow exports of grain from blockaded Ukrainian ports. An estimated 22 million tons of grain are waiting to be shipped out of Ukraine’s southern ports - this backload of grain has led to a global food shortage and rising prices. Here is a summary of the deal from Kyiv Post.
Note: July 14, 2022 - The United States clarified that it has not imposed sanctions on agricultural, agricultural equipment, or medicine. (US Treasury)
July 20 - Russia threatened to cut of oil and gas to Europe. “Nuremberg has stopped illuminating its historic buildings, Hamburg landlords are rationing hot water, and Berlin may turn off nonessential traffic lights at night. In Potsdam, even the temperatures on Germany’s beloved saunas have been turned down. It is part of a desperate scramble across Europe to reduce energy consumption in a summer of soaring temperatures and prices and to build up natural gas supplies ahead of the bitter chill of winter — in anticipation that Russia may shut off the gas completely.”
“Russia has already stopped sending gas to the Baltic states and Poland, Bulgaria and Finland, and flows to Denmark, the Netherlands and Italy have been reduced…Germany’s heavy reliance on Russian gas makes it especially vulnerable to disruptions…Moscow, supplies 30 percent of the natural gas used for Germany’s electricity production and home heating.” (Washington Post)
ON THE HOMEFRONT
July 19 - Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy may be taking this opportunity to clean house by cashing in on his popularity and the exigencies of the war. Zelenskyy was elected in 2019 for his platform to reform the government and eradicate corruption. Not surprisingly, trying to get a government to eliminate corruption when the government leaders and employees live off of that corruption is very difficult. Zelenskyy, an outsider who may have the right motives, has meet much resistance in his attempt to change a system that runs on corruption. (For an interesting read on this topic, read the June Report War and Corruption in Ukraine by Drago Kos who works for the OECD.)
On July 19 - With the support of the parliament, Zelenskyy fired Security Service Head Ivan Bakanov and Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova, officially claiming that their departments contained a large number of employees who were collaborating with occupying Russian forces.
Bakanov has been criticized for a resistance or inability to reform Ukraine’s archaic intelligence service which is a bloated and highly corrupt part of the government. The Security Service of Ukraine, known as S.B.U., is the successor to the Soviet-era K.G.B. With a whooping 30,000 employees, it is Europe’s largest security agency - in comparison, Britain’s MI5 has just 4,400 employees. The agency has vast powers and is plagued by corruption.
After Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova was fired on Sunday, a court ordered the country’s anti-corruption agency, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, to investigate her failure to fill out a report declaring assets and income as required by a new anti-corruption law.
July 19 - More on Corruption. After much delay, Oleksandr Klymenko has been appointed as the new head of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO). Appointing the head of SAPO was listed by the European Union (EU) as one of the conditions for Ukraine to retain candidate EU membership status.
NABU investigates corruption and prepares cases for prosecution. SAPO indicts and prosecutes the cases. The High Anti-Corruption Court (HACC) tries corruption cases, including high-level cases against political figures.
Still…
Sanctions - Part I
Is it possible to use globalization to restore peace? Can economic sanctions make obsolete the ancient dogma that the only way to stop an aggressor is through violent warfare?
Image: The Economist
A short break from my reporting - It is the conversations and the questions that make my writing meaningful. I encourage you to send me questions, giving me fodder to write the next article. If you have questions or frustrations about this War and about Ukraine in general, please write via Comments below or by email. I love Ken’s comment about how he feels, “Please excuse my outburst. My brain waves got hold of my fingers and I simply could not get them under control.” Let your brain waves get a hold of your fingers, and send me a note.
Kenneth wrote to me from Austin, Texas: “I am frustrated by the delay and foot dragging on the part of some countries and organizations like NATO, the European Union, the United Nations, and even our USA. It seems the more sanctions that are imposed the more aggressive the Russians become. Why do we/they dribble out these sanctions? I think we across the board need to be much more assertive. Please excuse my outburst. My brain waves got hold off my fingers and I simply could not get them under control. On a bit of an upbeat, there are quite a few Ukraine flags and signs to be seen here and the local Honda auto dealership has a HUGE Ukrainian flag flying from a very high flagpole.”
I can understand your frustration - you feel that not enough is being done to help the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians are fighting not only a war to protect their homeland, but they very well may be fighting the Russians to prevent Putin from expanding into other countries from Georgia to Moldavia, to Poland and Estonia, to Finland and Lithuania. Ukraine is out there by herself - suffering all the lost children, lost homes, lost families, lost economy - all necessary to stop imperialist Russia.
This is a 2 part series on the sanctions imposed on Russia for its aggression on Ukraine. It is a long and hopefully informative discussion on the topic. I know, sanctions don’t sound like a very sexy or interesting topic. But, believe me this is the stuff movies are made of - OK, stories that movies should be made of. Starring Meryl Streep, Robert Downey, Jr., and Jennifer Connelly.
I believe sanctions used in international relations is a very exciting topic. Is it possible to tweak economic globalization in order to restore peace? Can non-violent economic sanctions be successful in ridding human-kind of the tenet that the only way to stop an aggressor is through violent war fare?
I hope you enjoy this series. It is long, I know. I invite you to get yourself a glass of ice tea, put up your feet, and have a nice long read.
Why use sanctions?
Let’s start at an obvious point. The United States and Europe do not want to wage a ground and air war against Russia. It is not merely a question of will or bravery, it is dangerous to think of three super powers - United States, Europe, and Russia - fighting a 21st Century war. Such a war could lead to WW III, nuclear war looming - a fight we have avoided since 1945.
The United States and the Europeans would rather fight this war against the aggressor using Ukraine as their agent. Believing it is better to spend trillions of dollars in aid to Ukraine, than to send our troops into Ukraine and Russia, we watch a David and Goliath battle from a distance as the Ukrainians fight the Russians for us. It might cost us at the gas pump or in our taxes. It might impact our cost of food. But, this is better than sending our young men and women into battle or risking a nuclear war.
In truth, what needs to happen is to stop Vladimir Putin. Got any ideas? Isn’t there anyone who could talk sense into the dictator? I’ve got a very nice collection of books on haiku that I would trade for peace. How about a nice relaxing trip to upstate New York?
Since we don’t have any better ideas, we (and by ‘we’ I mean world leaders) have decided to bulk up the Ukrainian military through massive military aid and by pounding Russia with heavy economic sanctions. Up to date, the U.S. has sent $7.6 billion in military weapons. The European Union has promised 30 billion Euros; 6 billion Euros have been disbursed.
Economic sanctions used against Russia.
The sanctions target exports, imports, banks, businesses, and individuals.
Here is a list.
Nonrenewable energy (oil, gas, and coal)
The United States - banned all imports of oil, gas and coal.
Germany - stopped funding and building the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
Oil and gas companies withdrew from Russia.
Exxon Mobil - exited all its Russian oil and gas business, valued at more than $4 billion.
BP - withdrew its 20% stake in Russian oil giant Rosneft, which may cost BP as much as $25 billion.
Shell - severed ties with Russian gas giant Gazprom and stopped its $1 billion financing of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
Erin, the Italian energy company - suspended all new purchases of oil and oil products from Russia.
The EU - banned oil imports by sea by the end of 2022.
Exception: Hungary’s Viktor Orban, a Putin ally, is not part of the ban. In fairness, Hungary is highly dependent on Russian oil, getting 60% of its gas and oil from Russia via pipeline. The rest of Europe gets around 30% of its oil from Russia.
Germany and Poland have vowed to end all pipeline deliveries, including those delivered by sea.
The EU will halt Russian coal imports this August.
The EU’s future reliance on Russian oil will be reduced- the EU has plans to reduce Russian gas imports by two thirds this year, and completely by 2030.
The British will end all Russian oil imports by the end of 2022.
Switzerland placed an embargo on crude oil and certain refined petroleum products from Russia.
Result: Gas and oil prices in the world have gone up. Inflation has gone up. Transportation prices have gone up. The value of the yen and the Euro have plummeted. The electorate have forgotten why they are paying higher prices, are blaming their leaders, and are not happy.
The European Union told its member countries on July 20th that they must cut consumption by 15 percent between now and the springtime to stave off a major crisis as Russia threatens to cut off gas and oil prior to EU imposing sanctions. (NY Times)
“When Putin cuts gas supplies, he uses energy as a weapon,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wrote in an opinion piece in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on Monday. “Not even the Soviet Union did that during the Cold War,”
July 20 - “Nuremberg has stopped illuminating its historic buildings, Hamburg landlords are rationing hot water, and Berlin may turn off nonessential traffic lights at night. In Potsdam, even the temperatures on Germany’s beloved saunas have been turned down. It is part of a desperate scramble across Europe to reduce energy consumption in a summer of soaring temperatures and prices and to build up natural gas supplies ahead of the bitter chill of winter — in anticipation that Russia may shut off the gas completely.
Russia has already stopped sending gas to the Baltic states and Poland, Bulgaria and Finland, and flows to Denmark, the Netherlands and Italy have been reduced…Germany’s heavy reliance on Russian gas makes it especially vulnerable to disruptions…Moscow, supplies 30 percent of the natural gas used for Germany’s electricity production and home heating.” (Washington Post)
European sanctions against the import of oil and gas from Russia are the most severe of all sanctions and right now feels like it hurts non-Russians more than Russians. But, scholars tell us, don’t be fooled. The boycott of Russian oil will cost Russia bunches of billions of dollars. See Sanctions: Part II. Just let me be clear, the largest export from Russia is oil and gas. Russia really doesn’t have another export. She depends on the world’s addiction to oil.
Some scholars see this oil war as an opportunity to nudge countries to develop more alternative forms of energy. “There’s no reason why you shouldn’t read this crisis as a huge invitation to just go big on renewables and flexible reserve capacity.” (Adam Tooze, March 1, 2022 interview with Ezra Klein.)
Banking
Russian Central Bank- Assets frozen. $630 billion in foreign-exchange reserves, are frozen.
All major Russian banks cut off from SWIFT (like iMessage for Banks, how funds are transferred). Admittedly Banks can find other ways to message, for example, through secured emails, but it will be very cumbersome and inefficient. It’s the combination of SWIFT and the ban on the Russian central bank and their banking system that is bad. They cannot get payments; they cannot access their dollar assets. As a result, they will be unable to participate in the global network of payments.)
U.S. - restrictions against four major Russian banks.
The UK - all major Russian banks have assets frozen and they will be excluded from the British financial system.
Result: June 27, 2022. Defaulted: The last time Russian defaulted on it debts was in 1918 during the Russian Revolution. Today Russia defaulted because they can’t find a way to pay their overseas creditors. Remember, no SWIFT and no Western states dealing with Russian banks.
So, who cares? Well, if defaulting continues, Russia will not be able to get credit in the future. Economists are asking, “Will the default chip away at Russia's standing with still-friendly countries? Will Russia be able to borrow on the international market going forward?” (June 27, 2022 NPR) Is Russian being cornered or is it burning its own bridges?
Airspace
The EU, the UK, Canada, and the U.S. closed its airspace to Russian airlines.
Even China’s civil aviation authority banned from China’s airspace Airbuses and Boeings which Russia stole from international lessors shortly after it invaded Ukraine back in February. “In defiance (of global sanctions), Russia’s aviation regulator recommended on March 5 that all Russian airlines with planes leased from foreign carriers, and not registered in Russia, return home immediately and not land anywhere overseas, lest the aircraft be detained and repossessed. Before lessors caught wind of the plot, Russia had absconded with over 500 of their aircraft and had them tucked away in Russian hangars, forevermore out of reach. The planes were valued at over US$10 billion.” （OCCRP)
Finnair rerouted its flights to Asia over the North Pole, the first time a polar route has been used for commercial flights in nearly 30 years.
Result: No Western or Japanese planes are flying into or out of Russia or are flying over Russia. My friends scheduled in May to fly from Japan to Iceland and instead of flying West over Russia, they had to fly down to Frankfurt, and then over to Iceland. A much longer trip and more costly to the airline.
Tourism in and out of Russia is kaput! 24.6 million tourists traveled to Russian in 2018. St. Petersburg and Moscow. No Hermitage Museum, Georgian food restaurants, palaces, rivers and canals. And, of course the Russians and Ukrainians aren’t doing any traveling, either. In 2019, Russians spent US$ 36 billion traveling abroad.
The frequency of flights to some destinations has been reduced and other routes have been dropped.
Russia issued a reciprocal ban, forcing many airlines to reroute or cancel flights. Aeroflot suspended flights to international destinations due to airspace restrictions and to counter the "risk" of aircraft being repossessed by lessors. (That’s what you get for stealing those planes in the first place!)
Multinational companies
The following is a small portion of the companies that are boycotting Russia.
Food and drink companies.
Starbucks, Coca Cola, and Pepsi - suspended sales in Russia.
Yum Brands (the parent company of KFC and Pizza Hut) - stopped activity and investment in Russia.
Burger King - ended support for its 800 locations operated by franchises in Russia.
Carlsberg, the world’s third-largest beer company - stopped selling beer in Russia.
Result: Russians will have to forego their morning latte at Starbucks and instead of going to McDonald’s they will have to go to Vkusno & Tochka - Tasty Period, where they will have no French fries until the Fall. (See my News Summary of July 9.) Thousands of Russian jobs will be lost.
2. Transportation companies
Airbus -no parts and services to Russia.
Australia banned the export of alumina, bauxite and other aluminium ores to Russia.
Boeing - blocked the sale of parts and services to Russia. Boeing has also stopped buying titanium from Russia.
GM, Ford, Renault, and even the Chinese owned Volvo Cars - stopped working or selling in Russia.
DHL, FedEx, and UPS - suspended shipments to and from Russia and Belarus.
Harley Davidson - suspended shipments to Russia.
Stellantis - the company which makes Jeep, Fiat and Peugeot vehicles - suspended imports and exports to Russia.
Result: The auto industry is a very large industry in Russia. Up to 600,000 are employed in an industry that depends on foreign parts and cars. Again, airplanes will need new parts and new airplanes need to be built.
Eurpope expressed concern about the safety of Western-made aircraft flying in Russia without proper access to spare parts or maintenance.
3. Finance Companies
Pricewaterhouse, Coopers, and Deloitte - no longer operating in Russia and Belarus.
Western Union- ceased its operations in Russia and Belarus.
4. Other companies have stopped working or investing in Russia.
Nike, Adidas, Uniqlo, TJ Maxx, Hermes, and Hugo Boss. Unilever, Ikea, and Estée Lauder.
Netflix - suspended all serivce in the country.
Spotify - paid subscription will no longer be available in Russa.
Disney is out!
Hitachi - suspended business in Russia.
Top designer companies, including Prada, Gucci, and Dior shut their doors in Russia.
Result: Oh, no! How are Russians going to watch “The Great British Bake-Off”on Netflix? Wealthier Russians will not be able to buy the newest handbag or watch from Prada and Dior. And, wait! How are Russian kids going to be able to watch Thor or Frozen?
8. Individuals
The US, EU, UK and other countries sanctioned more than 11,000 Russian individuals and businesses. As of June 2022, the U.S. and its allies have frozen more than $30 billion worth of sanctioned Russians’ funds and other financial assets. This includes yachts, mansions, art work, and bank accounts.
Russian government officials and family members have been sanctioned. Assets belonging to President Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov are frozen in the US, EU, UK and Canada.
The UK has also stopped the sale of "golden visas", which allowed wealthy Russians to get British residency rights.
Result: Russian citizens are stuck in Russia. Wealthy Russians and oligarchs have lost their mansions and Picassos.
Wealthy Russian have shifted funds worth hundreds of millions of dollars from sanctioning countries, like the UK and Switzerland, to countries that have not imposed sanctions, like the United Arab Emirates.
9. Tech companies
Apple - limiting services in Russia and ceased exports of its products.
Google - blocked all online advertising.
IBM - suspended business in Russia.
Microsoft - suspended sale of its products.
The United States and 36 allies have banned the export of semiconductors, telecommunications equipment, lasers, avionics and maritime technology. “Semiconductors, are the brains that operate most modern electronics, from appliances to fighter jets. Russia manufactures few of its own chips, historically relying on imports from Asian and Western companies.” (Washington Post, May 11, 2022)
Result: Russians are in some instances being forced to use computer chips from dishwashers and refrigerators in some military equipment. Two Russian tank manufacturers stopped production because of a lack of components. (Washington Post, May 11, 2022)
“President Vladimir Putin said that Russia is facing ‘colossal challenges’ in the high-tech sector, an unusually frank admission of the difficulties the Kremlin is experiencing as sanctions begin to bite.” (July 18, 2022 - Bloomberg)
Between 50,000 and 70,000 tech professionals have left Russia. According to the Russian Association for Electronic Communications, at least 100,000 more are expected to leave in the coming months. If these calculations are correct, that’s 10 percent of the total number of IT specialists in Russia. (June 1, 2022 - Slate). Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, the Biden administration intends to remove some visa restrictions for highly skilled professionals from Russia who want to relocate to the United States. Under current proposals, Russians with master’s or Ph.D. degrees in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) fields, trained in the U.S. or abroad, could qualify for a simplified entry process.
Ah ha! Those tricky Americans are stealing Russia’s scientists and tech wizards!!!
Well, that is a lot of billions - $$$$. Lots of jobs. It looks like Russia has been thrown out of the globalization game. That must sting! So how come Putin hasn’t thrown up his arms and said, “I give up?” Basta! Uncle!!!
That’s the question, isn’t it? Let’s talk about that in the next article, Sanctions - Part II. I know, you can hardly wait…
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin
It is important to know your enemy.
Image: The New Yorker
Who is Putin and what can we expect? Is Putin the source of all evil? I have collected a couple of views for you to consider. The first is a long, yet insightful and entertaining discussion featuring my favorite modern Russian scholar, Mark Galeotti. The 2nd is a short synopsis of the views of a scholar from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Tatiana Stanovaya.
July 18, 2022 - Today’s New York Times guest opinion by scholar Tatiana Stanovaya encapsulates her 2 decades of study of Putin in the title of her article, Putin Thinks He’s Winning. According to the scholar, Putin has three goals which Ms. Stanovaya creatively sees as fitting together like a charming matryoshka doll - the Matryoshka Doll Theory?
In summary - here is Ms. Stanovaya’s theory.
1st, Take control of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Check! Almost.
2nd, Take Kyiv and Russify Ukraine. Not so easy.
At first, Putin expected to take Kyiv in the early days of the War. Drat! That didn’t go as quickly or effectively as he expected. Those pesky Ukrainians resisted and showed a resolve he did not predict. No worries. Putin has shifted his expectations and sees this as a longer goal. Ukraine will understandably get so tired of this War, Putin will make sure that the innocent civilians suffer - bomb maternity wards, destroy apartments buildings and wedding halls, evacuate Ukrainian children to Russia. Use of assorted war crimes are the preferred military strategy. So, Kyiv will have to accept Putin’s demands and they will accept a Russification of the country. Putin likes to call it the ‘Deukrainianization” of Ukraine. Charming. Rename streets and towns (how about Putingrad?), rewrite history, get rid of those nasty nationalists, make Russian the only language of trade, and be sure that the Russian view of education and culture prevails. Nifty! It has been reported that Russian authorities are ordering that everything painted blue and yellow (the colors of the Ukrainian flag) be removed or changed. Ukrainians in occupied lands have been given Russian passports. The Ukrainian government will be replaced with pro-Kremlin toadies and any cooperation with the West will be limited to whatever the Kremlin says is OK.
3rd, Build a new world order. The Putinmare. (Get it? Putin and nightmare combined. Just a little humor. Sorry...)
Of course, Putin’s evil Oberhauser persona, wants a new world order. Really? Yes, really. Putin sees the West (especially the immoral Americans) as the archenemy. According to Ms. Stanovaya, Putin predicts that there is a future for a “good West” that will conduct friendly business relations with Russia. Putin favors those amenable leaders like himself, including Viktor Orban in Hungary. Even America’s Fox News’ Tucker Carlson loves Orban and his modified election laws to favor his party and that he has curbed freedom of the press, passed anti-LGBTQ laws, and waged a war against immigration. Putin also likes Marine Le Pen in France, and of course, Donald Trump - all of whom are willing patsies to overlook Putin’s bad behavior and support ways of weakening democracy. Putin is pretty sure that high inflation and high energy prices will support the ‘good West people’ and make the electorate rise up against those old fashioned leaders who fight for democratic institutions.
According to the Stanovaya, “There is some good news. The very fact that the plan seems realistic to him (Putin) should, in the short term, prevent any nuclear escalation. But the bad news is that sooner or later, Mr. Putin will face reality. It is in that moment, when his plans are stymied and his disappointment high, that he is likely to be most dangerous.”
Pocketful of Stories
Shauna learned a few Ukrainian songs to play on her guitar. I still ask her to play Vona. “Oh, Mom, I don’t know if I remember it… OK. Let me think...” And, then our memories of Ukraine - of our friends - come strumming out of that old guitar.
mbfitzmahan. Shauna 1997. Photo negative.
July 2022 - After 5 months of War, it feels like you’ve had enough. Check the front page of the newspaper, Ukrainian news that in March had its own section at the top of the page, has been relegated to a single article at the bottom. Inflation, pandemic, war, Democrats v. Republicans, assassination, shootings… it is too much. Ack!
And, I wish I could tell you that the Ukrainians are going to defeat Russia in the next few days or months. I cannot. But, let’s give the Ukrainians more time to act as our agents, to fight the war for us. Ukraine is worth fighting for. And the Ukrainians are fighting harder than ever to save their homeland. And, it is a home worth saving - it is a culture that enriches all of us worldwide. And, don’t forget that we are fighting a dictator that has his eyes on more than just Ukraine; he smacks his lips looking beyond.
1997 Lutsk.
Without movie theaters, a TV or a computer - an evening of making music was the most entertaining part of our week. A troop of students appeared at our door holding gifts of food - baked chicken, Ukrainian bread, and pickles made by grandmother. We didn’t have much room so we gathered in the largest bedroom. A smattering of American music joined our playlist, but most of the music came from Ukrainian and Russian hits. Shauna, having brought her Lyle guitar all the way from Vashon to Lutsk, played Counting Crows’ “Raining in Baltimore” and Lyle Lovett’s “She’s No Lady.” Max took the guitar and all eyes turned to the singer, completely attentive as if he were the most cherished soloist at the concert hall. There was little talking, it was all about music. One evening, a voice cried out, “Tanya, recite Pushkin!” Cheers rose up from the party, “Yes! Yes! Yes!” Tanya shyly looking at her admirers, stood up and began a recitation in Russian. Suddenly, she stopped and looked at me, “Maureen, would you like me to translate?” “No, just continue in Russian.” Tanya recited Pushkin for 30 minutes.
Shauna learned a few Ukrainian songs to play on her guitar. I still ask her to play Vona. “Oh, Mom, I don’t know if I remember it… OK. Let me think...” And, then our memories of Ukraine - of our friends - come strumming out of that old guitar. Out come memories of being stuck together on the Ukrainian-Polish border where Shauna serenaded tired travelers.
Listen to a version of Vona below.
_______________________________________________________
The lyrics of “A Vona” by Plach Yeremiji seem to apply to feelings of wartime Ukraine.
****
not today for sure tomorrow
friends will share the joy and sorrow
that's the time to drink some wine and chill
some will bring white-petaled asters
life is more than charms to master
yes the life is beautiful and real
and she will
and she will
be sitting sad and still
won’t get drunk
from cheap wine drinking
making sense of what is real
I will sing for her and crystals
shall vibrate not knowing how
with my voice in silent distance
overcome this sadness now
so it happened God knows where
I love her free flowing hair
I love her thin lips and know them well
soon enough the leaves will fall and
we’ll disperse while cities calling
with the voice so Russified like hell
so she will
so she will
be sitting sad and still
won’t get drunk
from cheap wine drinking
making sense of what is real
oh my little girl with sad eyes
oh my golden fate and rest
I continue with my screaming
for the night is bare and vast
Vinnystia Hit by cruise missile
It is hard to argue that any of the targets in Vinnytsia were militarily necessary. 23 civilians were killed and many others are missing.
VINNYTSIA, Ukraine — Russian cruise missiles hit a shopping center, a dance studio, and a wedding hall in west-central Ukraine on Thursday, July 14th.
I can not see what military justification there is for Russia shooting 3 cruise missiles into a shopping center or a wedding hall filled with civilians. In response to the assault, the Dutch foreign minister said that the Netherlands was considering setting up an ad hoc international Ukraine war crimes tribunal.
The world appears to be outraged by another apparent disregard to the safety of innocent civilians. The Governor of the region said, “These are quite high-precision missiles. ... They knew where they were hitting.” But, Russia claims that the missiles were not aimed at civilians but were targeting an officers’ quarters. “Margarita Simonyan, head of the state-controlled Russian television said that military officials told her a building in Vinnytsia was targeted because it housed Ukrainian ‘Nazis.’’ (AP news)
Sadly, this is not the first time that Vinnytsia has suffered at the hands of invading dictators. In 1941, the Nazis invaded the town, rounded up its Jewish population and massacred all 28,000 men, women, and children. A macabre photo put little Vinnytsia on the map - it is a 1941 photo of a Einsatzgruppe soldier about to execute a Jewish man kneeling before a mass grave. The photo was taken by one of the German soldiers watching the massacre who wrote on the back The Last Jew of Vinnytsia. This photo, one of the most iconic photos of the Holocaust, was first made available at the 1961 trial of Adolf Eichmann. (I’ve put the photo below in the photo gallery. It is quite disturbing, reminding me of the Vietnam War photo by Eddie Adams of the instant of the execution of a Viet Cong prisoner by a South Vietnamese Colonel.)
