News Update - September 18, 2o22
Ukraine takes back 3,400 square miles northeast of Kharkiv and presses on Kherson.
Note: I’m back from 3 weeks in the Seattle area. I, too, am wondering what’s going on Ukraine. It looks like Ukraine is ‘winning.’ Or…
The war, now going on for nearly 7 months, has some good news for Ukraine. Ukraine has taken back 3,400 square miles northeast of Kharkiv. Is this just propaganda from the Ukrainians, or are the wins significant and do they indicate a shift in the war? I have gone from news agency to news agency and from scholar to scholar, and here is what I can tell you.
The general response to these victories are that they are “very significant.”
The Ukrainians have been able to retake a large chunk of occupied territory in the northeast part of Ukraine. It is too early to say that this is a turning point in favor of Ukraine because the recovery of land is only in one area of occupied Ukraine and Russia still occupies nearly 20% of Ukrainian land.
But what Ukraine has been able to accomplish is a big deal. OK, now I have to try to explain some military strategy. As you know, that is not my strong point, but I have found some sources that might help us understand what is going on.
Reclaimed Land
3400 square miles reclaimed by Ukraine in September, 2022.
It is important that the Ukrainian forces last Saturday (September 10) were able to retake the towns of Izyum and Kupiansk which are both centers for Russian forces to get supplies for the Donbas area. Also, according to France 24, Ukrainian troops as of September 9th were “conducting a counteroffensive in the southern Kherson region…General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN, says that barring unforeseen battlefront developments, the Ukrainians could be in a position to seize the entire right bank of the Dnieper River, including Kherson city, by October.”
The DniEper River
Also, some saw Russian soldiers running away from the battlefront, rather than fighting. I have read about Russians running away from their posts before. I have to think these reports are a way that Ukrainians can say that the Russian troops are either cowards, dispirited, or inept. This is good for Ukrainian morale. The fact is that apparently, the Ukrainians used astonishing speed to attack these two areas and the Russian military was either surprised or unable to respond. Of course, the troops withdrew. It points to a lack of troops in the areas and poor strategy from the Russian military.
This military maneuver surprised most people, including the Russians. It is believed that the Russians were focusing on the south and were unprepared for the attacks in the northeast. People are blaming the poorly trained troops and are praising the Ukrainians as ‘highly competent and motivated.” For those of us rooting for David over the Russian Goliath, it is a happy moment.
What does this mean to Ukraine?
Ukraine must be happy on a couple of levels. 1. Ukraine is in need of some wins. The long months are a huge drag on their economy and the loss to human life are horrific. 2. The West, including the United States, are certainly feeling tired of supporting this foreign corner of Europe especially if they see the war as a lost cause.
There are reports that Ukraine worked more closely with American and NATO Intelligence and military strategists to come up with this result. There had been earlier reports that the Ukrainians were not providing needed information to American Intelligence, thus making it harder for the Americans to help. Following the wins last week, President Biden announced that the United States will send another $600 million in military supplies to Ukraine, including more artillery ammunition.
So what will Putin do?
These wins are embarrassing to Putin. The people at home are beginning to stir. According to Mark Galeotti, “there are a huge number of Russian elites who are not happy with the things the way they are going” And, even Putin’s oligarchs are seeing an uncertain and weak Putin and may be making things even more uncomfortable for the dictator.
An interesting analysis by Michael Kimmage in Foreign Affairs stated that Putin since the early months of the war has been balancing two balls, “One is sustaining the war for the long term with a peacetime Russian army, having surmised that Ukraine’s military is weaker and that a prolonged war favors Russia. The other ball is ensuring that Russian society remains insulated from the war, on the assumption that Putin can maintain high levels of domestic support as long as ordinary Russians are not exposed to the war’s costs.”
The truth of the matter is that the Russians do not have enough troops, and many of the troops that they have are undertrained. Up until now, Putin has been using private military companies (including draftees from prisons) and relatively impoverished troops coming from non-Russian parts of the Russian federation. There are plenty of men and women for a larger army, but to mobilize all eligible people could be a political faux pas.
In addition, the Russians may be running out of long range missiles - the Russians have used up nearly 80% of their stockpile. Production is down because of the Western sanctions boycotting the export of microelectronics. This means that the Russians are only able to produce 7 to 10 long range missiles a month. Uh oh! I guess those pesky sanctions are beginning to work.
Acccording to US Intelligence, the Russians are also being forced to buy artillery shells from the North Koreans. The New York Times reported on September 5th, “Russia is buying millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea…a sign that global sanctions have severely restricted its supply chains and forced Moscow to turn to pariah states for military supplies.” This comes after the Russians were forced to buy Iranian made drones, some of which were believed to be defective.
As to that second ball insulating Russian citizens from the good, the bad, and the ugly war in Ukraine…Even some of Putin’s supporters are not pleased. On Saturday in response to Putin dedicating a new Ferris wheel in commemoration of the 875th anniversary of the founding of Moscow, one well followed blogger wrote, “You’re throwing a billion-ruble party. What is wrong with you? Not at the time of such a horrible failure.”
Last weekend, more than 30 Russian municipal deputies signed a petition calling for Putin’s resignation. They wrote in their petition, “We, the municipal deputies of Russia, believe that the actions of President Vladimir Putin harm the future of Russia and its citizens…We demand the resignation of Vladimir Putin from the post of President of the Russian Federation!”
Finally, in addition to military set backs, Putin is also facing diplomatic push back from his so-called allies. Friday, September 16, Prime Minister Modi of India told Putin “I know that today’s era is not of war.” This was a polite way for India to say it did not like the war Putin was directing. Modi’s comment, was a day after Putin acknowledged that China’s Xi Jinping, had “questions and concerns” about the war.
So…what does all this mean? I’m not sure. Keep your eye on the news. The people at home and the Chinese and Indians are not pleased - they see a weakening Putin and are wondering what’s next. Winter is coming…that’s a real thing in snow filled Ukraine. Will Putin stall his war and bump up the aggression in the Spring? And, what will happen if he does that? Will the Western allies be able to get more guns and ammunition to the Ukrainians? Will the sanctions that are expected to take place after the New Year hurt the Russian economy? Will Putin tighten his hold on Russia - getting closer and closer to a full totalitarian state? On the other hand, should we be careful about underestimating Putin and the Russians? Will the Russians stop exporting all oil and gas to Europe as Putin warned? Are the Europeans ready for a cold winter, i.e. do they have alternatives to Russian oil?
Finally, why aren’t I talking about peace talks, a truce? At this time, it does not seem likely. The Ukrainians are on the move and have the advantage - President Zelensky said that he will not return to the peace table until Russian troops have evacuated Ukrainian land. Putin is not likely to talk about a truce, further weakening his political position.