Biden Leadership
The world holds its breath as two warriors of the Cold War face off.
Did Donald Trump’s words and actions influence whether the Russian president invaded Ukraine? Did he have any impact on how prepared Ukraine would be at the time of invasion?
History will judge. In another century, history writes that Neville Chamberlain’s policy of appeasement empowered Hitler to attack Poland and then march across Europe. Winston Churchill said of Chamberlain: “You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour and you will have war.”
Putin was pleased to see Americans increasingly politically and socially divided under President Trump, assured that America’s discord would weaken the country making it unable to reunite in a resolve to fight against Russian aggression. Putin is no friend of the United States. The day he invaded Ukraine on February 24th, Putin said, “the whole so-called Western bloc formed by the United States in its own image and likeness is in its entirety, [an] ‘empire of lies’ … As for our country, after the disintegration of the USSR, [the United States and Europe] immediately tried to put the final squeeze on us, finish us off, and utterly destroy us.”
Fortunately, Joseph Biden is president of the United States. Biden, an elected statesman for half a century, has more foreign policy experience than any other president in U.S. history - 3 times more experience than George H.W. Bush, who had the next longest. When Biden entered the Senate in 1973 Leonid Brezhnev was First Secretary General of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. Followed by Andropov, Chernenko, and Gorbachev. Biden has experience dealing with Soviet trained dictators, including Vladimir Putin.
The peace of the world is in the balance as two bulls of the Cold War face off. In the shadow of the most perilous war to break out since World War II, President Biden is well qualified to help the United States and its allies.
Foreign leaders and press are relieved and impressed by Biden’s leadership against Putin and Russia. London based The Economist wrote in March, “Mr Biden’s administration’s response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has been prompter, bolder and more effective than even the most faithful Atlanticist could have predicted. Nato is united behind American leadership and pushing the boundaries of collective defence.”
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson wrote, “President Biden has displayed great leadership, consulting and convening allies, exposing the lie that America’s commitment to Europe is somehow diminished.”
The Japan Times editorial on March 4, 2022 wrote, “The West, and virtually the entire world, has united to oppose the invasion of Ukraine. While many leaders deserve credit for helping to forge this coalition, a good deal of the credit goes to U.S. President Joe Biden, who has demonstrated remarkable acuity in handling this crisis.”
The editorial continued, “The speed with which all parties agreed on sanctions and the severity of those measures is an example of the success of Biden’s strategy….These achievements are even more impressive given the damage that his predecessor Donald Trump did to U.S. alliances, multilateralism and the rules-based order. The most important lesson of the last week has been that international cooperation and coordinated action in pursuit of shared values and principles are essential to the survival of that order and to the peace and security it creates.”
And article concluded, “The protection of national interests is best achieved through cooperative actions, not myopic or narrowly defined nationalism. And throughout the crisis, Biden has focused attention on where it belongs. He has applauded the heroism and resilience of the Ukrainian people and condemned Putin for his aggression. He has not made it about himself or put himself at the center of the unfolding crisis. For 70 years, the world has looked to the U.S. for leadership in international crises.… there remains a critical need for leadership, albeit leadership of a new kind. The world is fortunate to have Biden in the White House as it grapples with a world in transition.”
Joseph Biden, NATO, and the world face a very different and difficult conflict with Russia. Unable or unwilling to send troops into Ukraine, most of the world is sending military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. According to the Ukraine Support Tracker, “the U.S. is the largest supporter of Ukraine, with the equivalent of 7.6 billion euros since the outbreak of war (data as of March 27, 2022). All EU countries combined total 2.9 billion euros, plus 1.4 billion euros from EU institutions and 2 billion euros from the European Investment Bank. The UK, Canada and Japan have pledged a combined 1 billion euros worth of aid.”
This massive amount of aid is in addition to impositions of severe sanctions trageting Russia’s trade, companies, individuals and their financial sector. The European Union (EU) and the UK alone account for around 40% of Russia’s trade in goods and services. “Russia is a major exporter of energy and industrial metals, and Russia and Ukraine together supply over 25 percent of world exports of wheat. Europe is particularly dependent on Russian energy, with 47 percent of natural gas and 25 percent of oil imported from Russia. Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Tur- key import over 75 percent of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine, and many countries in the Middle East and Africa rely on imports of wheat and other com- modities from Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to food insecurity.”
On the other hand, sanctions placed on Russia are expected to have a significant impact on Russia’s economy. “The World Bank forecasts that on the basis of sanctions announced in March 2022, by the end of 2022, Russia’s GDP will be 11% lower, investment 17% lower, inflation will rise to 22%, and exports and imports will fall by 31% and 35% respectively” Western allies are expecting that these sanctions will also impact Russia’s ability to wage war, in large part because many of Russian imports are for technology needed for military weapons.